588
FXUS63 KILX 020509
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1109 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for all of central and
  southeast Illinois through tonight. Snowfall everywhere north of
  the I-70 corridor will range from 2 to 4 inches...with locations
  further south picking up 1 to 2 inches.

- Much below normal temperatures will prevail through next
  weekend...with the coldest readings arriving Thursday night when
  12z NBM guidance suggests a 60-80% chance of lows dipping below
  zero along and north of a Rushville to Mattoon line.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 743 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

An upper shortwave trough is approaching the Middle Mississippi
Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent and frontogenetic forcing
out ahead of the wave has resulted in light to moderate snowfall
since early this afternoon. Snowfall totals up to this point have
ranged from around 1 to 3 inches. Short-term guidance shows a
stronger 700-800 mb frontogenetic band lifting through the area
over the next few hours, with a more defined snow band associated
with this feature setting up from roughly Springfield to Champaign
just before 8 pm. Additional snow amounts under this band could
approach 2 inches as it slides east across the area, with 0.5 to 1
inch per hour snowfall rates. Snow will exit from west to east
later tonight, clearing Galesburg around 10 pm and closer to
Lawrenceville by 2 am.

NMA

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The light snow event has commenced across central Illinois...with
20z/2pm radar imagery and area obs indicating snow reaching the
I-57 corridor. As a short-wave trough currently over the Plains
approaches, synoptic lift will increase and the snow will become
moderate in intensity for several hours. The initial band of
700-800mb frontogenetic forcing has shifted a bit further south
than originally thought...resulting in accumulating snow beginning
along a Jacksonville to Mattoon corridor a couple hours earlier
than locations from Bloomington to Champaign northward. As a
result, have made some minor adjustments to the accumulation
forecast. Still think all locations along/north of the I-70
corridor will see a general 2 to 4 inches, but there could be
isolated amounts up to 5 inches along the Jacksonville to Mattoon
corridor. Further south, it will take a bit longer for the snow to
start, so am expecting 1 to 2 inches south of I-70. Due to the
expected impact to the evening commute, have extended the Winter
Weather Advisory to include the entire KILX CWA. The Advisory ends
at 12z/6am Tue: however, the snow will end long before that. Based
on the consistent HRRR/RAP signal, it appears snow will taper off
and end in the Illinois River Valley after 8pm...then further east
to the Indiana border shortly after midnight.

While winds will veer to the NW and high pressure will build into
the region behind the area of elevated forcing, skies will remain
cloudy overnight into Tuesday. GFS guidance suggests skies may
partially clear during the day: however, both NAM and RAP forecast
soundings show boundary layer moisture becoming trapped beneath a
strengthening subsidence inversion. Given the time of year and the
fact that there will be no strong CAA inflow from the NW, think
the cloudier solution is correct. As a result, have lowered high
temperatures into the lower to middle 20s due to the cloud cover
over the fresh snow cover.

Barnes

.LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Wednesday appears to be the warmest day of the forecast period as
boundary layer winds become southwesterly ahead of an approaching
cold front. Thickness values support a warm-up well into the 40s:
however, the snow cover and continued cloud cover across much of
the area will curtail the warming. Am still expecting highs to
rise above freezing and lead to some melting of the recent snow.
As the front nears, all models are showing scattered snow-showers
northwest of the I-55 corridor by late Wednesday afternoon, then
further east across the remainder of the area during the evening.
Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Once the front passes,
windy and sharply colder conditions will arrive for Thursday. The
good news is that the sun will finally return at that time, the
bad news is that strong CAA will keep daytime highs in the teens
north of I-70 and the lower to middle 20s to the south. The
coldest period continues to look like Thursday night as winds
diminish over the snow cover. 12z NBM guidance indicates a 60-80%
chance of lows dipping below zero along and north of a Rushville
to Mattoon line.

The southern stream storm system that the models had previously
spread into Illinois by the end of the week has now shifted
southward. Given the presence of the Arctic airmass, the more
southern position of the prevailing baroclinic zone and storm
track makes sense. As such, have removed Friday PoPs...except for
just a slight chance (20%) south of I-70. As high pressure shifts
to the east and boundary layer flow once again shifts to southerly
ahead of the next approaching cold front, temps will briefly
rebound into the lower to middle 30s on Saturday. After that,
cold and dry conditions with highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s
is anticipated for next Sunday and Monday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Conditions will improve somewhat later tonight as snow exits from
west to east by 07z. IFR/MVFR ceilings will linger overnight,
looking to improve to all MVFR by mid to late morning. Ceilings
should improve late evening nearing the end of the period to VFR
conditions. CMI will be the latest improvement, staying MVFR the
whole period. Winds will be light through the 06z period with
speeds generally below 10 kts.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

$$