625
FXUS63 KILX 022302
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
602 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures well into the 80s to near 90 degrees
  will continue through Monday before an approaching cold front
  brings a return to more seasonable readings in the 70s by the
  middle of next week.

- An elevated wildfire risk will develop this weekend as
  southwesterly winds increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

SCT diurnal Cu will fade away before sunset, followed by mostly
clear conditions tonight. Thanks to a slight uptick in surface
dewpoints and the continuation of light S/SE winds, overnight
lows will be a couple of degrees warmer than last night...with
readings ranging from the upper 50s near the Indiana border to the
middle 60s in the Illinois River Valley. After a clear start to
the day, diurnal Cu will become more robust than it has recently
as NAM Cu-rule values drop into the -2 to -3C range. Based on what
happened to the W/SW today, am expecting skies to become partly
sunny by afternoon...and would not be surprised to see an isolated
shower or two. Highs will be similar to today in the middle to
upper 80s...with a couple spots potentially reaching 90 degrees.

Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

As low pressure takes shape over the central Rockies then lifts
northeastward into the Dakotas over the weekend, the resulting
tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing southerly
winds. Based on the latest projections, it appears the strongest
winds will develop from Kansas northeastward into Minnesota and
Wisconsin: however, think wind gusts of 20-25mph will be likely as
far east as the I-57 corridor by Sunday afternoon. Given the
antecedent drought conditions, low fuel moisture, and increasing
winds...concern is growing for the potential for wildfires over
the weekend. While winds and minimum RH values likely will not
meet Red Flag criteria, burning is highly discouraged both
Saturday and Sunday.

12z Oct 2 models have generally slowed the approach of a frontal
boundary early next week...with consensus showing FROPA by Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Given the slowing trend, additional Gulf moisture
will have time to work its way northward and perhaps give central
Illinois a better chance for rain than previously anticipated.
While this certainly will not be a drought-busting rainfall, GFS
precipitable water values increasing to around 1.50 along/ahead of
the boundary at least give some hope for pockets of beneficial
rain on Tuesday. The 12z LREF suggests mean rainfall of 0.25 to
0.50 and this seems reasonable based on the latest trends. While
not all locations will see rain, have increased PoPs into the
40-50% range accordingly. Once the boundary passes and winds veer
to NW, temps will drop back to near normal for this time of year
in the lower to middle 70s by next Wednesday/Thursday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Cumulus will dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime
heating. Mostly clear skies will return this evening, continuing
through the overnight period as high pressure lingers over the
region. Cumulus will then re-emerge Friday afternoon. A gentle
south wind will persist overnight, veering southwest on Friday.

MJA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$