073
FXUS63 KILX 052315
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
515 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat of light icing will slowly diminish from south to
  north, but will exist near and north of I-74 a good portion of
  the evening. Ice accumulations should be less than a tenth inch
  in most areas.

- Another threat of freezing rain exists Friday night and
  Saturday, with chances of icing currently around 20-40%.

- Storm track early next week will be well to our south, but some
  light snow may still make it into central Illinois.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

So far today, the bulk of the heavier precipitation has been near
and south of I-70, mainly in the form of some rain showers.
Further north, some freezing drizzle has occurred at times along
the I-72 corridor, and the I-74 region remains dry. Radar mosaics
have been showing a gradual northward drift in the precipitation,
and this become more evident around mid afternoon. Temperatures
have reached near freezing along I-74, but some evaporative
cooling as the rain begins will still pose a threat of some icing.
Highest PoP`s remain focused from late afternoon into the first
part of the evening, with rain diminishing from west to east as
the upper wave begins to move across central Illinois. Will plan
to peel back some of the southern flank of the advisory along I-72
and keep the rest of it going for now, though some of it may be
able to be dropped before expiration. By midnight, the entire
forecast area should be above freezing, with precipitation ending
as rain everywhere from wet to east overnight.

With thunder potential, main concern would be near and south of
I-70 this evening, as an area of 200-500 J/kg MUCAPE moves into
the area. Some small hail can`t be rule out with these storms, but
severe weather is not expected.

Geelhart

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Next storm system remains on track for impacting central Illinois
Friday night into Saturday. Similar to the current event, an
eastward wind feed into the system will keep the lower layers dry
initially, while a warm nose builds into the area Friday night.
Freezing rain threat remains on the table with this system as
well, depending on the track of the parent low pressure, currently
favored near or north of I-72/Danville. Probabilities of
measurable ice are currently 20-40% per WPC guidance, but ranges
up to 50-60% on the morning LREF ensembles.

Looking ahead to next week, the main storm track still looks to be
across the southern U.S., far enough south that snow would be the
main concern if we got anything this far north. Latest European
model favors some light precip into central Illinois by Tuesday
morning, while the GFS and Canadian models are further south.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 514 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Low pressure will track along the I-70 corridor late this evening
and overnight. As the low approaches, expect freezing rain and
drizzle to increase across central Illinois while ceilings build
down to IFR and eventually LIFR. A period of fog will be possible
late this evening as the low tracks across the area. Winds will
turn NW behind the departing low and expect precip chances to
taper off along with a quick improvement in visibility. Ceilings
will gradually improve with a return to VFR conditions possible
around midday Thursday.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ILZ042-
043-047-048.

&&

$$