307
FXUS63 KILX 012349
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
549 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonably cool weather this weekend will precede a bona
  fide warmup. Daily average temperatures from Monday to Thursday
  will be about 15 degrees warmer than what is considered normal
  for early January.

- Our next best chance (40-60%) for meaningful rain arrives
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Partial sunshine has returned this afternoon following the
passage of a cold front to our south. High pressure will settle
over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes for the remainder of the
weekend, resulting in seasonably cool temperatures. Two
disturbances are expected to track across the central and southern
Plains on Friday and Saturday. Although any associated
precipitation will remain south of our forecast area, we
anticipate an increase in high clouds, leading to filtered
sunshine.

A significant warm-up is anticipated next week. This will be
driven by strong low-level warm advection across the southern
Plains, leading to mid-level height increases over the Midwest.
Dry conditions are expected to continue, though we will need to
monitor two brief periods - Sunday night and again on Tuesday for
the potential of sprinkles as disturbances move across the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Currently, the chance for rain during either
period is less than 15% for our area. The presence of residual low-
level dry air will likely prevent any meaningful precipitation;
however, a slight, last-minute moistening within the broad warm
advection pattern could support a light spritz.

Daily average temperatures from Monday to Thursday are expected
to be about 15 degF warmer than what is considered normal for
early January. Highs will reach the low-to-mid 50s, with overnight
lows cooling to the low-to-mid 30s.

Our next meaningful chance for precipitation arrives Thursday as
a robust mid-level shortwave trough tracks across Baja California.
This disturbance`s position is anticipated to draw in Pacific and
Gulf moisture, increasing the probability of precipitation across
parts of the Midwest. Current guidance, including the NBM and other
ensembles, suggests a medium probability (40-60%) of precipitation,
with the Mean QPF of 0.25 to 0.5". Temperatures will be warm with
this system, and depending on the precise track and evolution of the
disturbance, there is a possibility for strong thunderstorms.

MJA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 549 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A weak surface front is slowly lifting north this evening, bringing
the return of scattered to broken low stratus to most of central
Illinois. Confidence in how long the stratus sticks around is
somewhat low, though conditions should improve no later than
Friday morning as an area of high pressure approaches from the
north. Winds remain light and variable through the overnight
hours, becoming north-northeasterly by mid morning with speeds of
5-7 kts.

NMA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$