963
FXUS63 KILX 131052
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
552 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds (20-30 mph) may cause localized blowing dust,
  potentially significantly reducing visibility. These impacts
  are most likely north of Interstate 70, but can occur
  anywhere agricultural fieldwork is active.

- A notable warming trend is expected this weekend, coinciding
  with daily thunderstorm chances. Severe weather potential is
  trending upward for the period spanning Friday through Tuesday.

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for
  late Thursday night into Friday morning for south-central IL
  for damaging winds and large hail. Then an additional marginal
  risk is in place for later in the day Friday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Winds will be gusty, up to 20-30 mph, again today. While not as
strong as yesterday`s winds, there could still be a blowing dust
concern where the highest gusts happen, since the rain overnight was
not enough to adequately dampen the soil. Notable visibility drops
while traveling locally could occur again.

A high pressure system sets up over the region through Thursday
evening. A gradual warm up is expected by the weekend. Upper 80s to
near 90 for highs is forecast for the weekend into early next week.
However, the NBM is still bit hot on the temperatures right now, so
let`s look at the LREF. The LREF is closer to 80 degrees rather than
90, with 40-70% chance of exceeding 80 degrees Saturday through
Monday. Record highs for this weekend are in the low 90s.

WAA and moisture return will bring additional rain chances into the
weekend, suggesting a more active pattern returning. The next chance
for some exciting weather is late Thursday night into Friday
morning. A MCS-type system, associated with a shortwave, looks to
move through the southern half of the state (south of I-72), the
exact track could wobble north or south still. The day 2
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) from SPC is for very late Thursday
night. The hazards we will watch for is strong- to- damaging
winds, large hail, and localized heavy rain.

SPC introduced a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for
day 3 (Friday) as well. Instability isn`t impressive Friday
afternoon, so the threat should remain fairly isolated and marginal.

Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms linger into the new
work week. Strong winds look to make a return early next week as
well as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of the next strong
low pressure system. There could be more severe weather threats
during this time as well, which we will continue to monitor as we
approach the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the 12z TAF period. The
main concern today is the winds. They will be out of the north-
northwest with gusts between 20-30 knots. The winds will relax
by sundown, then become light and variable overnight through the
end of the period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Copple
DISCUSSION...Copple
AVIATION...Copple