773
FXUS63 KILX 101100
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized heavy rainfall early this will yield pockets of 1 to
  3 inch totals near and south of I-70, leading to potential
  ponding in low-lying areas.

- The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 day outlook indicates
  a 40-70% probability of above-normal temperatures across
  central Illinois September 15-19. Normal highs this time of
  year is in the low 80s and normal lows in the upper 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are moving through this morning as the
front has stalled out across the southern half of the state. This
convection has expanded as the LLJ increased, currently over the
southern half of IL. The heaviest rain should remain along and south
of the I-70 corridor. There is a low risk for flash flooding across
the southeast. This area can likely take quite a bit of rain before
flooding becomes a major concern. The 6 hour FFG for the southeast
is 3-5 inches and 3 hr FFG is 3-4 inches. PWATs in the area of the
storms is 1.9-2.2 inches. Localized swaths of 1 to 3 inches are
still possible (particularly south of I-70) as highlighted by the
HREF LPMM. WPC has maintained a marginal risk ERO along and south of
I-72. The activity should move out by early afternoon.

High pressure will build over the Great Lakes Friday. Then
additional low-end chances exist for showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend. The NBM has broad brushed 30-50% POPs through
much of next week starting Tuesday as a cold front looks to be
progged to move through Illinois and potentially stall out.

More seasonable temperatures will be in place today and tomorrow
with warming temperatures through the weekend. Mid to late week next
week is forecast to be near normal behind the cold frontal passage
Tuesday. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10 day outlook
indicates a 40-70% probability of above-normal temperatures
across central Illinois through September 19th. Normal highs
this time of year is in the low 80s and normal lows in the upper
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

BMI and PIA may see some fog this morning, potentially dropping
visibilities down to 4SM and ceilings into IFR range. SPI, CMI,
DEC may experience some MVFR ceilings this morning with the area
of precipitation passing through, becoming VFR by mid afternoon
today, or sooner, but went with a more pestimistic forecast.
All sites should be VFR with light north winds after 20z
through the rest of the period.

In addition, the KSPI-KCMI corridor will be more favored for
rain showers and periods of thunderstorms through the morning,
with PROB30 mentions for TSRA at SPI/DEC and SHRA at CMI. IFR
ceilings are possible in the heavier shower/storms this morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Copple
DISCUSSION...Copple
AVIATION...Copple