185
FXUS63 KILX 250732
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
232 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal, low-impact weather is expected through today.

- Showers and storms return Wednesday. Some of these storms
  could be strong to severe, with damaging winds and large hail
  being the primary hazards.

- Summer-like heat returns later this weekend into early next
  week. There is a 40-60% chance temperatures exceed 90 degrees
  Sunday afternoon south of a Springfield to Effingham line.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

~1019 mb surface high pressure is centered over northern Indiana
early this morning, with surface ridging extending westward into the
Middle Mississippi Valley. Light winds and mostly clear skies have
allowed temperatures to drop into the upper 50s to low 60s this
morning. Tranquil weather is expected to continue through today,
with high temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching cold front will keep
temperatures a little warmer tonight, in the low to middle 60s.

A mid-level shortwave will track through the southern Canadian
Prairies and into the northern Great Lakes Region on Wednesday,
sending a cold front through Illinois. Out ahead of the front,
temperatures will climb well into the 80s with low 70s dewpoints
expected to pool ahead of the front. By mid to late afternoon, CAMs
show a broken line of supercell thunderstorms developing in a
moderately unstable airmass with SBCAPE up around 2000-2500 J/kg and
30 kts of wind shear. Although the better forcing will be displaced
to our north closer to the shortwave, a few strong to severe storms
could develop from late Wednesday afternoon and evening, posing a
threat for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail. Modest
directional shear noted in forecast hodographs may be enough to
support a brief tornado or two.

Northwest flow aloft remains in place through late this week, which
will ultimately keep things relatively dry and pleasant with
temperatures near our seasonal normals. Upper ridging will begin
shifting east this weekend, raising mid-level heights locally and
bringing the return of summer-like heat. Temperatures look to climb
into the upper 80s to low 90s, with the NBM indicating favorable
probabilities (40-60%+) for temperatures over 90 degrees south of a
Springfield to Effingham line on Sunday and a tier or two of
counties north of there on Monday. Precipitation chances late this
weekend into early next week look to remain confined over the
northern half of the state with the upper ridge preventing any
frontal systems from intruding too far south.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

High pressure remains over the Midwest tonight resulting in
light and variable winds and providing another opportunity for
patchy fog development by early Tuesday morning. As the ridge
axis drifts east Tuesday, a light S/SE wind will overspread the
terminals.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss