315
FXUS63 KILX 072019
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
219 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sharply colder weather will arrive by Sunday and Monday as
  daytime temperatures remain in the 30s and lower 40s and
  overnight lows dip into the lower 20s.

- The first snowflakes of the season will occur late Saturday
  night into Sunday across central Illinois. NBM guidance
  suggests a low probability (20-30% chance) of greater than 0.1
  snowfall along and north of the I-74 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

19z/1pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Lake
Huron southwestward to Texas. Despite FROPA, ample sunshine and
deep-layer mixing has resulted in high temperatures in the upper
60s and lower 70s across central Illinois this afternoon.
Meanwhile a second cold front is evident upstream across the Upper
Midwest/Northern Plains. This boundary will settle southward
and stall across central Illinois later tonight into Saturday.
While no precipitation is anticipated with the front itself, a
short-wave trough evident on latest water vapor imagery over
Montana will drop southeastward and generate low pressure along
the boundary on Saturday. Models continue to advertise a low track
across the heart of central Illinois, which would keep the
steadiest/heaviest precip focused further north across Iowa into
northern Illinois. While a few models suggest showers may develop
as early as Saturday morning, think the initially dry boundary
layer will prevent much precip development during the morning. As
synoptic lift increases ahead of the approaching wave and NAM
precipitable water values nudge back upward to around 0.75,
showers will develop across the Illinois River Valley around
midday...then will spread eastward to the Indiana border by late
afternoon. As the low shifts E/SE into the Ohio River Valley and
cold air gets drawn southward on its back side, the steadier
showers will gradually come to an end from west to east across the
area Saturday night. While 12z CAM solutions still vary to some
extent, confidence is growing that the precip will come to an end
before it has a chance to change to measurable snow. 12z NBM
continues to advertise just a 20-30% chance for 0.1 snowfall
along/north of the I-74 corridor. With that said, think the
showers will mix with and/or change to snow flurries along/north
of a Jacksonville...to Decatur...to Danville line toward dawn
Sunday.

Barnes

.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

As the low exits into the Ohio River Valley and the pressure
gradient tightens, northwesterly winds will increase sharply by
late Saturday night into Sunday. 12z NBM indicates a 60-90% chance
of gusts exceeding 30mph along/west of I-57 on Sunday. With air
temperatures remaining in the 30s across a good chunk of the KILX
CWA, daytime wind-chill values will hover in the lower to middle
20s. Thanks to cyclonic flow aloft and strong CAA, scattered
flurries/snow-snowers will occur as well...although no
accumulations are expected. Will still need to keep a close eye
on a lake-effect snow band progged to form off the southern shores
of Lake Michigan. Given N/NW trajectories, it appears the most
significant snowfall will remain just E/NE of the CWA across
north-central Indiana. Wind gusts will slowly subside Sunday
night: however, with the pressure gradient remaining tight,
sustained winds of 10-15mph will continue through dawn Monday.
Thanks to overnight lows dipping into the lower 20s, early morning
wind-chills will bottom out in the single digits and teens. The
cold/blustery weather will continue through Monday as highs
struggle to reach the upper 30s and lower 40s. After that, upper
heights will build and high temperatures will quickly rebound into
the upper 50s and lower 60s by next Wednesday through Friday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

In the wake of a cold front, west winds will gust to around 20 kt
throughout the afternoon before easing and veering to a northerly
direction this evening into the overnight. By 12z (6am CST)
Saturday, MVFR lake effect clouds off of Lake Michigan may
attempt to push into BMI and PIA, but the probability of ceilings
at either terminal is low (20-30%).


Bumgardner

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$