297
FXUS63 KILX 242346
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
646 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather and heavy rainfall risks will remain very low
  across central Illinois over the next week...with higher
  probabilities focused further south from the Ozarks into the
  Tennessee River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A short-wave trough currently over South Dakota/Nebraska will
ripple eastward tonight...spreading clouds and perhaps a few light
showers into parts of central Illinois. Most CAMs develop a band
of showers along/south of I-80 from late evening into the
overnight hours. Despite an initially dry airmass, frontogenetic
forcing within the band will be strong enough to squeeze out a few
showers. While later runs of the HRRR suggest the showers could
develop prior to midnight, think this may be a bit too aggressive
given only weak forcing and a dry boundary layer. Have therefore
opted to go with a dry forecast across the board this evening,
followed by low chance PoPs (30%) overnight mainly along/north of
a Macomb to Bloomington line.

The frontogenetic band will sink southward across the remainder of
the KILX CWA on Sunday...leading to an overcast day with scattered
light showers. Thanks to extensive cloud cover and NE winds of
10-15mph, high temperatures will be well below normal for this
time of year in the lower to middle 60s. Despite the rain chances
late tonight into Sunday, total rainfall will remain quite
light...generally less than one tenth of an inch.

Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

After dry weather Sunday night into Monday morning, a short-wave
trough approaching from the Desert Southwest will help nudge the
primary baroclinic zone currently draped from the Southern Plains
into the Deep South further northward. This will bring showers
back into south-central Illinois mainly along/south of a
Galesburg...to Lincoln...to Robinson line by Monday afternoon and
evening. A weak area of low pressure will develop along the front,
then slowly track northeastward from the Ozarks into Indiana by
midday Wednesday. This will bring the best chance for widespread
showers to all of central Illinois from Monday night through
Tuesday night.

Once the Southwest wave and its associated surface low pass to the
east, synoptic subsidence in its wake will result in a generally
dry day for Wednesday before additional energy dropping
southeastward out of Canada brings a renewed chance for showers
Thursday afternoon through Friday. After that, upper ridging
building over the western CONUS will shift eastward...leading to
rising upper heights and a substantial warming trend by early next
week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. At
PIA/BMI/CMI mid level cigs around 7kft will start but then get
lower overnight. SPI and DEC will have mid level cigs around 10kft
but also get lower overnight. Isolated showers will affect
PIA/BMI/CMI overnight so have a PROB30 for those. More predominate
showers will be around in the morning hours. However, at SPI and
DEC isolated showers will arrive in the morning and then continue
into the afternoon. Precip will end at PIA/BMI/CMI for the
afternoon while at SPI and DEC it will end late afternoon. Winds
will be light and variable through the night and then become
eastern tomorrow. Speeds will be less than 10kts overnight but
then increase with gusts near 20kts for the day...then decrease in
the afternoon.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$