835
FXUS63 KILX 130949
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
449 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (5% chance of 60 mph
  gusts) and a slight risk for excessive rainfall in place for
  areas along and south of I-70 this afternoon into evening.

- Daily chances (20-50%) for showers and storms are advertised
  through the upcoming week, though not everyone will see rain.

- Temperatures will be generally seasonable to slightly below
  normal this week. A cold front later in the week could bring a
  period of cooler temperatures by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The stalled out front across southeastern IL will have convection
develop along it today as a shortwave moves over the area. The
storms could be strong to severe, with a focus on the damaging wind
threat. There is modest CAPE and 30-40 knots of shear, supporting
stronger storms. SPC has a marginal risk in place for counties along
and south of I-70. The severe threat window looks to be from 21z to
03z this evening. However, there is a signal for additional showers
and thunderstorms as far north as a Peoria to Bloomington line.
Heavy rain will also be in play again today, starting around noon.
WPC has place I-70 south in a slight (level 2 of 4) risk of
excessive rainfall. PWAT values are around 2-2.2 inches again today.
The forecast soundings are showing a long-skinny CAPE profile as
well, supporting the heavy rain threat. The crops in that region
might enjoy the heavier rainfall. Any flooding concern will be
around urban areas and poor drainage areas.

Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly below normal this week,
mainly ranging from the low 80s to low 90s during the day. Normal
this time of year is upper 80s. Another cold front passage this week
will be what ushers in the slightly below normal temperatures.

There are several chances for showers and thunderstorms this week
with several disturbances pulsing through. We will take each one as
they come, but know that each day brings its own chances for
precipitation.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Light and variable winds will be in place much of the period
across central Illinois. Mid and high clouds over the region
during the pre-dawn hours this morning have hindered fog
development, and while I cannot completely rule out patchy fog,
confidence has lowered sufficiently in fog to remove it from the
TAFs. Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and
evening with the coverage greatest near and south of the I-72
corridor. Guidance is hinting at fog development again tonight
into Monday morning, possibly dense, though models still have some
variance on the details lending to low confidence in how low vsby
will drop.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$