285
FXUS61 KILN 271924
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
324 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thunderstorms over the Great Lakes will bring a severe threat this
evening.

2) Cooler and drier weather follows a cold frontal passage Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Disturbance rippling across the Great Lakes with seasonally strong
northwesterly flow aloft will offer a severe storm threat this
evening. Ongoing convection near Lake Michigan continues to grow
upscale this afternoon and will likely head south-southeast as a
mature MCS early this evening. With moderate instability (somewhat
dampened by an elevated smoke layer across our area) and around 50
knots of effective bulk shear, there will be a increasing threat of
damaging winds accompanying the storms. It is likely the storm mode
will be somewhat linear by the systems arrival in our northwestern
counties, but can`t rule out a brief large hail and spin-up/QLCS
tornado threat as well. In addition, very heavy rain could cause
localized flash flooding as well... especially in flood-prone areas.

The main uncertainty with this system is how far east the MCS
reaches. The main instability gradient looks to be setting up near
and west of the Interstate 75 corridor. If this holds, the highest
threat of damaging winds will coincide with this region. We will
continue to monitor storm- and meso-scale evolution as the event
unfolds.


KEY MESSAGE 1)

A cold front will sweep southeast through our local area Tuesday
morning. Can`t rule out a few showers or an isolated storm along the
front, but severe threat looks to be low at this time. Northwesterly
winds behind the front will slowly bring slightly cooler and drier
air lasting through most of the week. Temperatures will be a bit
below normal through at least Thursday and potentially into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Have opted to stay with PROB30`s with the convection this evening
into the overnight due to uncertain convective evolution. Will likely
need to add TEMPO groups for TS once confidence improves over the
next couple of hours. A brief period of gusty winds will include some
of the thunderstorm activity.

MVFR stratus is likely to form across most of our terminals along and
behind the cold front Tuesday morning.

OUTLOOK...Significant weather is not expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...04