Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
032 FXUS61 KILN 081035 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 635 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move south through the Ohio Valley early this morning with high pressure of Canadian origin building into the Great Lakes today. Dry and cooler conditions will arrive behind the front and continue through the end of the week, as the large area of high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mean longwave H5 trof shifts east of the area this morning with northwest flow aloft developing. Expansive surface high pressure of Canadian origin to build into the Great Lakes today. Lingering post frontal clouds associated with the exiting system across the southeast will clear the area early this morning. Cumulus clouds will develop from the late morning into the afternoon with the best coverage across central Ohio. Northeasterly winds and CAA will keep high temperatures on the cool side - ranging from the mid 60s north to around 70 south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Expansive surface high pressure of Canadian origin settles over the Great Lakes overnight. Skies clear with the loss of heating this evening and winds decrease to around 5 mph. Temperatures drop to lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Pockets of patchy frost can`t be ruled in protected areas across the north but this is a limited chance due to temperatures being marginal and with wind staying up. High pressure dominates the weather Thursday with only few to scattered cumulus clouds. High temperatures range from the lower and mid 60s north to the upper 60s south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... On Thursday evening, a sprawling area of surface high pressure will be centered over the state of New York. This high will extend well to the west and southwest, providing a dry air mass across the Ohio Valley for the start of the extended forecast period. Radiational cooling conditions will be near-ideal on Thursday night / Friday morning, with clear skies and very light easterly winds. Min temps are expected to range from the upper 30s to around 40, and some outlying areas might get into the mid 30s, particularly north of Dayton and Columbus. Frost is expected for the northern third of the ILN CWA. On Friday, a compact closed upper low will move southeast into the Great Lakes, but any precipitation associated with the southern extent of the trough is expected to dissipate before reaching the ILN CWA. With a return to southerly flow on Friday, temperatures will begin a warming trend, with upper 60s for highs on Friday and lower 70s over the weekend. Conditions over the Ohio Valley will likely remain tranquil over the weekend, though the overall weather pattern will be somewhat complicated -- as the low over the Great Lakes and another low off the coast of the Carolinas are forecast to merge together somewhere off the mid-Atlantic coast. The ILN CWA is expected to be on the western periphery of this complicated array of weather systems, with little to no impact expected. Gradually warming temperatures are expected going into next week, but with very low confidence on getting any additional rainfall into the area. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expansive surface high pressure of Canadian origin to build into the Great Lakes today in the wake of a cold front. Lingering post frontal clouds associated with the exiting system to continue pushing off to the southeast leading to VFR conditions. VFR cumulus clouds will develop from the late morning into the afternoon with the best coverage across central Ohio. These clouds clear this evening with the loss of heating. Dry airmass and some flow around 5 kts persisting overnight will inhibit the development of widespread fog but can not rule out some brief valley fog at KLUK. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...AR