812
FXUS61 KILN 111440
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1040 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A boundary will sag down into the region late in the day and into
tonight. This boundary will slowly lift northward Wednesday into
Wednesday night. A weak disturbance will move through on Thursday. A
stronger storm system will move through over the weekend bringing the
potential for gusty winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
After coordination with surrounding offices and local/state
officials, have issued a Special Weather Statement for elevated fire
danger this afternoon for a handful of our counties in northern KY/
southern and southeastern OH. Concern with RHs in the 20 to 25
percent range combined with with breezy winds and antecedent dry
conditions that fire could quickly spread.

A system currently located over Quebec will drag its cold front down
through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley today before it
stall out. Accompanying this is a plume of higher PWATs, around 130%
of normal. This, combined with subtle forcing from the frontal
boundary, will result in increased cloud cover late this afternoon
and evening.

Otherwise, temperatures still on track to exceed normal values.


Previous discussion--> Temperatures will be well above normal today
with highs ranging from the upper 60s to the middle 70s. Expect some
late day clouds, primarily across northern portions of the region, as
a boundary sags down into the region. Winds will pick up and gust
around 25 mph today. There are some lower RH values expected today,
however the lowest values are expected to be where the lowest winds
are as well. Will mention a low end fire weather threat in the HWO
for parts of the region for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The boundary continues to sag down into the region overnight and
there will be an increase in cloud cover with this boundary and some
wind. There will be a wide range in temperatures from below freezing
across the far north to the middle 40s across the far southern
portions of the region in parts of northern Kentucky.

Higher res models are slow to move this boundary northward on
Wednesday which would have implications for temperatures. Also if
the boundary is slow to move northward this would mean a longer
period of cloud cover as well. Did not drop temperatures as much as
might be needed for Wednesday, however did tighten up the gradient
for temperatures with highs in the upper 50s north to 70s near and
south of the Ohio River. Some models are showing this boundary
lifting a little quicker and so will have to continue to monitor
trends as any little shift in the boundary will have the potential
for a 10 degree difference in temperatures in some areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temperatures well above expected thru Saturday and then moderating
but continuing above normal Sunday and Monday. A low chance for
showers will exist Thursday with a good chance for showers/embedded
thunderstorms and windy conditions Saturday.

Mid and upper level split flow with a southern stream shortwave
tracking from the Southern Plains across the TN Valley Wednesday
night/Thursday. This will result in a very low chance of showers
with the best chance across the south on Thursday. With southerly
flow warm temperatures look to top out from the upper 60s north to
the lower 70s south on Thursday.

The flow amplifies as we head into the end of the week as a strong
system develops over the Central Plains. Friday looks to remain dry
with pcpn arriving Friday night as moisture increases ahead of the
aforementioned system. Highs on Friday will range from the lower 70s
to the upper 70s.

Deep surface low pressure over the Central Plains ejects northeast
into the Upper MS Valley by Saturday morning. Southerly low level
jet will offer favorable moisture transport into the Ohio Valley
ahead of a surface cold front. With the pressure gradient
tightening, ensemble probabilities indicating the potential for wind
gusts in excess of 40 mph on Saturday. Inspection of individual
forecast soundings show potential for strong synoptic winds in a
well mixed environment.

Also - ensembles solutions continue to show a chance of MUCAPE
values above 500 J/KG. Machine learning also points to the potential
for severe weather Saturday -- with the best chance across the
south. Given this signal -- have increased thunder chances and will
continue to include a mention of the wind gust and severe weather
potential in the HWO.

After highs of 70-75 on Saturday -- a chance of showers will linger
into Sunday with highs of 50 to 60 in the post frontal environment.
Surface high pressure and drier weather Monday with highs from the
lower 50s to near 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LLWS will be possible at the start of the TAF period. Winds will
pick up during the day with wind gusts around 20 knots.

A boundary will sag down into the TAF sites late in the day and into
the overnight hours. As it moves into the area there will be a
change in wind direction and an increase in VFR clouds.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions with storms are possible Saturday. Wind
gusts near or above 35kts are likely Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM... /CA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...