736
FXUS61 KILN 230102
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
902 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will shift slowly east across the Great Lakes
today into Friday. This will lead to scattered showers today and a
continuation of below normal temperatures into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Northwesterly winds persist tonight as a low pressure system remains
to the northeast. Clouds are expected to clear a bit more through
the night with the lose of diurnal instability. Forecast lows drop
to within a few degrees of 40 areawide. It is not out of the realm
of possibility that some sheltered locations north of I-70 could
drop into the middle 30s if winds drop off enough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Northwest flow aloft is expected on Friday. Some sunshine will occur
in the morning, however with daytime heating and some instability,
cu and stratocu will form by afternoon for partly to locally mostly
cloudy skies. Can`t rule out a few stray showers especially across
central Ohio during the afternoon, however confidence in occurrence
is rather low at this time. Another cool day is expected Friday with
temperatures from the upper 50s north to mid 60s south.

Northwest flow may keep some clouds around Friday night, even with a
surface high building in. Lows will be in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period will be characterized by below normal temps and
periodic chances for showers, with the overall potential for
hazardous weather looking quite low through midweek of next week.

Dry conditions are expected on Saturday as the slow-moving stacked
low lumbers off to the E, with NW flow becoming established in the
OH Vly into this weekend with subtle midlevel height rises nudging
into the region. Highs on Saturday will be warmer, but still below
seasonal norms, topping out in the mid to upper 60s with a mix of
sun and clouds.

Into Sunday and early next week, the large-scale negative height
anomalies in the NE CONUS will stretch back to the W through the
Great Lakes as zonal flow becomes established from the mid MS Rvr
Vly through the srn OH Vly. Dry air will remain entrenched across
the local area through Sunday. As S/W energy pivots to the SE from
the upper Midwest into the south-central plains by Sunday/Monday,
another quasi-zonal baroclinic zone will tighten, providing a focus
for several rounds of SHRA/TSRA activity during this time from the
central plains into the srn OH Vly and TN Vly. The latitudinal
placement of this boundary will ultimately dictate which areas
remain dry and which ones will be susceptible to episodic storm
chances Sunday through much of early next week. This being said,
ensemble guidance supports this axis to initially become established
S of the ILN FA on Sunday, which would keep most, if not all, spots
near/N of the OH Rvr dry through Sunday night, at the very least.
This trend suggests dry conditions should be maintained locally into
Monday afternoon, but slight chance PoPs will be maintained in N KY
given uncertainties regarding the rain/storm axis Sunday into early
Monday.

Ensemble guidance has shown a subtle shift to a more well-defined
system emerging into the OH Vly for Monday/Tuesday of next week,
which should effectively shunt the dry air entrenched over the
region this weekend off to the NE, allowing for a return of rain
chances late Monday through Tuesday, potentially lingering in at
least an ISO fashion into midweek. The likely track of the sfc low
looks to be such that severe weather is not a big concern locally at
this juncture given the lack of instby and disconnection from the
richer LL moisture, but another bout of rain should become
increasingly likely by late Memorial Day through Tuesday as this
slow-moving system crawls E through the region.

The overall large-scale pattern will likely evolve into one or more
closed/cutoff lows somewhere across the mid MS Rvr and OH/TN Vlys
into the Great Lakes by midweek of next week, with negative height
anomalies favored to persist, as a whole, in the region through the
entirety of the long term period. This evolution would most
certainly keep the below normal temps going even longer, and may
even keep periodic rain chances in the fcst into (and beyond)
midweek given the pattern. However, the details of this still remain
uncertain at these time ranges, but confidence is high in the
continued absence of above normal temps through most of next
workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR ceilings have scattered and lifted late this afternoon giving
way to a VFR cloud deck. Additional clearing is expected overnight
before VFR ceilings redevelop during peak heating on Friday.

Westerly wind from 10-15 knots persist for the TAF period with
higher gusts during the day on Friday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Campbell