Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
974 FXUS61 KILN 231044 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 644 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonal summer temperatures continue on Saturday before a cold front moves through the region Saturday evening. This cold front brings in much cooler air, resulting in below average temperatures across the Ohio Valley for much of the following work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Saturday will be our final day of seasonal summer temperatures for a little while as we`ll be on the cusp of a broader pattern change. An upper level low will be carving its way through Canada toward the Great Lakes region, with much cooler air behind its cold front. We never do get true return flow into the region ahead of this front and the Gulf Coast moisture never quite gets back up into the Ohio Valley. As such, most of the area will remain dry throughout the day on Saturday with some patchy cu increasing in coverage by the evening hours. Daytime highs reach the upper 80s along the Ohio River/ low to mid 80s along I-70. Meanwhile, a secondary boundary exists along the Appalachians and a weak wave will progress northeast along this feature. Any lift associated with this may produce scattered shower/storm coverage during the Saturday afternoon hours, particularly near northern/eastern KY and southern OH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... The cold front will move through the region during Saturday evening into the overnight hours. Signals point to a relatively dry FROPA with just a few isolated showers forced out ahead of it. A wave of CAA will push in behind this front and east central IN/ west central OH will feel the effects of this during the overnight, with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s (along with dew points into the 50s). By Sunday, northwesterly flow will take over in earnest and high temperatures will be noticeably cooler, especially across I-70 corridor where CAA processes have been in place longer. Highs reach the mid 70s in the north, low/mid 80s in the south. CAA cu linger, though we should also see periods of sunshine. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will slowly build into the middle Ohio Valley through most of the week. Under the high, very low environmental moisture will lead to mostly clear skies and cool nighttime temperatures. High temperatures will rebound quickly during the day under abundant sunshine... though daily averages are likely to generally remain below normal for late August. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low level stratus continues to linger across the region this morning, keeping a BKN VFR deck at most TAF sites. Valley fog has developed in spots, though most of the VSBY drops occurred before the stratus developed, so have pulled fog from all sites except LUK, where satellite imagery is depicting fog creeping up the Ohio River. Calm winds this morning will pick up and shift to out of the west, around 10 knots or so. High level cirrus blow off moves into the region during the afternoon hours ahead of a cold front and low level moisture continues the BKN VFR deck. Sites should remain dry. After dry cold front passage in the evening, winds shift to out of the northwest. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CA NEAR TERM...CA SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM... AVIATION...CA