Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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506 FXUS61 KILN 140611 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 211 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and storms return this week, with warming temperatures expected. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Surface high pressure will drift through the Great Lakes today, with dry conditions for the ILN CWA, and high temperatures in the 70s. As the high moves off to the east, a larger shift to the weather pattern is expected to begin on Tuesday, with strong ridging (or even a closed high) setting up over the southeastern states. The push of warm and moist air from the south will bring temperatures into the 80s to near 90 on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Some heat index values near 100 may be possible in the southern parts of the forecast area on Wednesday. The main frontal zone and storm track will be north of the ILN CWA to begin on Tuesday, but this will shift southward with time as the ridge breaks down. Recent model runs suggest this may happen a little sooner than previously expected, with chances for storms encroaching on the northern ILN CWA as early as Tuesday night. Occasional rounds of showers and storms are then expected Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, until the front finally moves south of the region late Friday into the weekend. With building instability, and some increase in wind flow working into the area from north to south, some degree of severe threat may end up occurring during the week. However, with precipitable water values of 2" or greater, and the potential for several rounds of storms during the week, the flood threat may end up being the bigger concern. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will generally remain 10 knots or less, though some briefly gusty conditions are possible early this morning. Some diurnal cumulus is expected to develop during the day today. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hatzos AVIATION...Hatzos