099
FXUS61 KILN 050915
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
415 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A system moving through the region today through Thursday will
bring with is a mix of precipitation and the potential for icy
surfaces late this afternoon into tonight. Dry conditions are
expected for Thursday night through Friday. Another system will
begin to bring mixed precipitation the region starting late
Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry conditions will start out the near term.  A system will
approach from the southwest today. On the leading edge of the
precipitation there will be the potential for sleet given the
temperature profiles. Locations south of the Ohio River will
generally be warm enough that most of the precipitation is
expected to be rain. The further north you go the higher the
likelihood there will be of freezing rain with far northern
location of the forecast area not expected to go above freezing
at all during the day today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Issued a winter weather advisory across the northern half or so
of the forecast area. Except for the leading edge with sleet,
expect the main winter precipitation type to be freezing rain.

Went with two tiers to account for timing and amount differences.
The southern tier is expected to have less ice accumulation and
will transition over to rain earlier. Temperatures will rise
Wednesday night into Thursday. Expect the region to be above
freezing everywhere by daybreak Thursday and some of the
southern portions of the region to reach into the middle to
upper 50s by Thursday morning. As the temperatures rise tonight,
there will be the potential for some thunderstorms across
southern portions and then eastern portions of the area. Cannot
rule out some isolated flooding concerns, however widespread
flooding concerns are not present at this time.

Temperatures during the day on Thursday will range from the
middle 40s across northwestern portions of the region to the
middle 60s across southeastern portions of the area.
Precipitation will taper off through the day on Thursday. Winds
will also pick up and be gusty on Thursday with some wind gusts
around 30 mph possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term forecast period begins with a front sinking south of
the area Thursday night and surface high pressure nosing into the
region. This high pressure will build across the region on Friday,
leading to dry but cooler conditions. Highs on Friday will range
from the lower/mid 30s north to the mid 40s south.

Another progressive mid level short wave and associated surface low
will track east across the Ohio Valley over the weekend, bringing
another round of widespread precipitation. The precipitation may
start off as a wintery rain/snow mix Friday night, especially across
the north, before transitioning over to all rain Saturday into
Saturday night. Highs on Saturday look to show a wide variation -
ranging from near 40 northwest to the lower 60s southeast.

Precipitation will then taper off early on Sunday as high pressure
brings cooler and drier conditions. Highs Sunday to range from the
mid 30s northwest to the mid 40s southeast. High pressure and dry
conditions are expected across most of the area on Monday, with
highs from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south.

Moisture to spread north back into the area overnight Monday into
Tuesday as several waves of low pressure track along a frontal
boundary to our south. Model solution differences exist regarding
the northern extent of the pcpn band. Temperatures look to be cold
enough for snow across most of the area with a mix across the south.
Highs range from near 30 north to the upper 30s south. The potential
exists for some accumulating snow but uncertainty is high regarding
any placements or possible amounts. Will have to keep an eye on this
as we get closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will start out the TAF period. A system will move
into the region later today. KCVG and KLUK have a higher
likelihood of staying all rain, while north of those locations
at least some period of freezing rain is expected. There will
also be the potential for a brief period of sleet on the
leading edge given the temperature profiles. Cigs will lower to
IFR Wednesday night and LIFR at the longer KCVG TAF. Also at the
end of the longer KCVG TAF will be the potential for some LLWS.
As warmer air tries to work northward KILN will have the
potential to change over to rain at the end of the TAF period.
There will also be the potential for some thunderstorms
Wednesday night at KCVG and KLUK for an hour or two.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions likely Wednesday night into
Thursday night. MVFR to IFR conditions expected again for
Saturday. Wind gusts Thursday and Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST
     Thursday for OHZ060>064-070>074.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST
     Thursday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-065.
KY...None.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST
     Thursday for INZ050-058-059-066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...