506
FXUS61 KILN 140611
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
211 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms return this week, with warming temperatures
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Surface high pressure will drift through the Great Lakes today, with
dry conditions for the ILN CWA, and high temperatures in the 70s.

As the high moves off to the east, a larger shift to the weather
pattern is expected to begin on Tuesday, with strong ridging (or
even a closed high) setting up over the southeastern states. The push
of warm and moist air from the south will bring temperatures into the
80s to near 90 on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Some heat index
values near 100 may be possible in the southern parts of the forecast
area on Wednesday.

The main frontal zone and storm track will be north of the ILN CWA to
begin on Tuesday, but this will shift southward with time as the
ridge breaks down. Recent model runs suggest this may happen a little
sooner than previously expected, with chances for storms encroaching
on the northern ILN CWA as early as Tuesday night. Occasional rounds
of showers and storms are then expected Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday, until the front finally moves south of the region late Friday
into the weekend.

With building instability, and some increase in wind flow working
into the area from north to south, some degree of severe threat may
end up occurring during the week. However, with precipitable water
values of 2" or greater, and the potential for several rounds of
storms during the week, the flood threat may end up being the bigger
concern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
generally remain 10 knots or less, though some briefly gusty
conditions are possible early this morning. Some diurnal cumulus is
expected to develop during the day today.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hatzos