062
FXUS61 KILN 222321
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
621 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather and a slow moderation of
temperatures this weekend. Several chances for light
precipitation return by the middle of next week as a warmer
weather pattern develops. Slightly above normal temperatures are
expected by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
West-northwest mid level flow with an embedded shortwave
tracking thru the Eastern Ohio Valley. Vanguard mid and high
level clouds cover Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky will
continue to thin out as the shortwave departs the area. Expect
mostly clear skies overnight with only some thin high level
clouds spilling in from the northwest.

Temperatures tonight drop to lows from the upper teens to
around 20 degrees. Southwest winds will decrease to less than 10
mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
West-northwest flow with a weak mid level shortwave dropping
from the Upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes Sunday. Mid and
high level clouds - thickest across the north will spill across
the area Sunday. Temperatures will slowly warm up with highs
ranging from the mid/upper 30s northwest to the lower/middle 40s
southeast.

In the fast flow mid and high level clouds to decrease Sunday
evening as a weak shortwave departs the area and then increase
again late ahead of another shortwave moving into the Great
Lakes. Pressure gradient tightens up keeping winds up around 10
to 15 mph overnight. Temperatures will be milder with lows from
the middle to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The overall longwave pattern to start the extended period will
consist of a low amplitude ridge over the Rocky Mountain States
with troughing across the Eastern Seaboard. Between these two
systems, brisk west-northwesterly flow aloft will offer several
fast-moving disturbances through the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. However, of note is an overall lack in deep moisture
advection into the region. This will result in limited
opportunity for significant weather impacts.

On Monday, southwesterly boundary layer flow will bring well
above normal temperatures. A disturbance will race through the
Great Lakes late in the day through the overnight, with a slight
chance of rain across the north closest to the shortwave. A
slightly stronger system will accompany a cold front late
Wednesday into Thursday. Chances for rain are a bit higher for
this system, with colder (but still above normal) air filtering
in behind the front on Thursday.

High pressure appears to briefly build across the region
Friday, with southerly flow returning to start next weekend. The
longwave pattern is trending more amplified by Saturday, with
warm advection bringing temperatures back to well above normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Under a west to northwest mid level flow aloft, some weak
embedded mid level disturbances will bring mid and high clouds
to the region from time to time. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure will remain stretched across the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys. Southwest winds tonight between 5 and 10 knots will
become more southerly on Sunday between 8 and 12 knots. There
could be some occasional gusts between 15 and 20 knots near the
northern terminals.

OUTLOOK... MVFR conditions possible Tuesday and Wednesday. MVFR
ceilings possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR