631
FXUS61 KILN 230635
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
135 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for showers will end tonight as low pressure moves
farther east. Dry weather is expected Saturday and Sunday as
high pressure takes over. Showers return on Monday with low
pressure and a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The ILN forecast area remains in a regime of deep northwesterly
flow, with a slight veering with height. Heights are already
beginning to rise over the area, as the deep closed low moves
further away to the east. However, there remains quite a bit of
cold air at 850mb that will not be departing the area all that
quickly. The 00Z KILN sounding showed an inversion at about
760mb, with warmer and drier air above it. Model soundings
suggest this warm and dry layer will become more pronounced with
time, with the height of the inversion gradually lowering
overnight. However, under the inversion, lapse rates remain
steep enough to support overcast skies and patchy drizzle.

With deep-layer moisture moving away, and precipitation
developing within this shallow layer under the inversion, the
predominant precipitation type through the rest of the overnight
period will be drizzle. The forecast has been updated to keep
patchy drizzle in the forecast through morning.

Previous discussion >
Scattered to numerous rain showers are lingering in the brisk
cyclonic flow behind low pressure centered over SE New York
State. As the lake-enhanced showers track southeast, light
amounts of rainfall will continue to be observed this evening,
especially across eastern locations that will be closer to the
center of the cyclonic forcing and moisture. For the overnight
hours, as winds and lake influence gradually diminish, showers
should exhibit a decreasing trend, with dry weather forecast by
6 am. Low temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s will be
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pressure tracking across the SE CONUS is expected to
provide dry weather Saturday and Saturday night. Clouds will
persist during the daytime under a strong inversion, while
decreasing moisture and sky cover could be observed Saturday
night, though model differences lead to greater than average
uncertainty regarding the cloud forecast. Though limited by the
lack of sunshine, temperatures should reach the mid and upper
40s Saturday afternoon as a milder airmass moves in. Lows in the
30s are forecast for Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low amplitude mid level ridge will translate east as a short wave
moves from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes during the early
part of the period. This will result in surface low pressure passing
north of the region, but the trailing cold front crossing the area
late Monday afternoon through Monday evening. Showers will occur out
ahead of this front. It will be mild with above normal temperatures.

Mid level flow will become zonal with surface high pressure tracking
east across the area through mid week. The change in airmass will
drop temperatures below normal.

A short wave emerging out of the central Rockies on Wednesday will
move eastwards across the country. There continues to be some spread
in solutions regarding timing and amplitude of this system. But it
still appears likely that this will result in low pressure passing
across Tennessee and Kentucky Wednesday night and Thursday. The
shield of precipitation north of the low track will move across the
forecast area, possibly starting as early as late Wednesday, with
the bulk of the precipitation Wednesday night and on Thanksgiving.
Thermal fields are forecast to be warm enough for all rain, albeit a
cold rain, in southern counties. There could be a mix of rain and
snow further north in the forecast area, although precipitation
amounts will likely be lighter in the colder air further away from
the low track.

In the wake of this system, a stronger short wave will be diving
southeast into the Great Lakes. This combined with low level flow
off of the Lakes will result in additional showers. Temperatures
will be colder by that point, so snow showers will be more prevalent
than rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cyclonic flow off the lakes will lead to continued low ceilings
thru the night and into Saturday. A few light rain showers or
drizzle will end overnight with little impact on visibility.

Ceilings will be very slow to improve, and should remain MVFR
thru the morning. By afternoon, some improvement is possible,
with VFR conditions develop from the southwest during the evening.

Northwest winds gusting to around 20 kts will gradually begin
to diminish toward morning. Northwest winds around 10 kts will
back westerly today and then to the southwest at less than 10
kts tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Monday afternoon
through Tuesday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR