081
FXUS61 KILN 221432
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
932 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool temperatures and chances for precipitation remain in place
today. Dry conditions and near normal temperatures return to
the region for Saturday and Sunday as high pressure builds
across the area. Rain chances increase on Monday with the
approach of the next disturbance.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Large elongated mid level low centered over PA to move to the
East Coast today. A strong embedded shortwave pivoting around
this low has pushed south of the Ohio River.

Another vort rotated around the backside of the departing low
will result in an increased chance for pcpn this afternoon as
moisture from the warm Great Lakes is picked up by a strong
northerly flow at 850mb. Boundary layer warms up so expect pcpn
to become all rain this afternoon. Low clouds to persist with
high temperatures in the lower and middle 40s.

Northwest winds around 15 mph will gust up to 30 mph at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
With the mid level low off to the east ridging begins to build
into the area overnight. The area begins to dry out with
precipitation chances decrease from west to east late this
evening into the early overnight hours. Temperatures drop to
lows from the mid 30s to near 40.

Northwest flow aloft with surface ridge building into the area
Saturday. Expect considerable cloudiness with some decrease from
the southwest late in the day. High temperatures generally in
the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid-level ridging will continue to provide fair, mild conditions
through the weekend. By Monday, low pressure will move from the
Central Plains into the Great Lakes States. Rain will accompany this
system Monday, with the cold front pushing through the region late
in the day. Cool high pressure will then build into the Ohio Valley
Tuesday and Wednesday offering below normal temperatures.

The next disturbance will arrive into the area heading into
Thursday. At this time, it appears the associated low pressure
system will move across the Kentucky and Tennessee Valleys with
steady rain from Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Large elongated mid level to continue to influence our weather
for another day as it slowly pulls off to the east. A shortwave
rotating around this low and associated widespread snow has
pushed south of the area overnight.

Ceilings will remain generally in the MVFR category with a brief
period where they may lift to VFR early, before MVFR ceilings
fill back in for the rest of the day into the evening. Some IFR
ceilings are possible this afternoon as well. Another shortwave
rotating around the low will bring a chance of rain this afternoon,
indicated in the TAFs with a -SHRA or VCSH.

Northwest winds increase to 12-15kts during the day with some
gusts of around 25 knots by afternoon.

OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings will continue through Saturday. MVFR
conditions are possible again Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR