994
FXUS61 KILN 151743
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
143 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot, humid, and hazy conditions continue.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop Friday
and continue into the weekend bringing a risk for localized flash
flooding and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
The mid level ridge begins to flatten by Thursday, continuing to
shift to a more northwest to southeast orientation. This will
introduce northwesterly flow across the Great Lakes region and will
help shift the axis of warmest temperatures a bit farther south and
west compared to today. This, combined with an increase in cloud
cover and wildfire smoke from Canada/ northern Minnesota should help
keep temperatures in the low 90s for Thursday. For now, have opted
against continuing any heat headlines given more marginal conditions
and shifting axis of warmest temps.

Despite not continuing headlines, we will still have some warm
summertime days in store for the end of the working week! Plan for
afternoon feels like temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with hazy
skies. Warm temperatures continue into the weekend, but thunderstorms
are reintroduced to the forecast and convection/ cloud cover will
influence daytime highs.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
Shower and thunderstorm chances are reintroduced to the forecast on
Friday and Saturday as a midlevel wave moves through the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley region. Currently, the blend paints higher PoPs west
of I-75 on Friday and then shifts that corridor east on Saturday.
Area wide, a very moist environment will be in place, with PWATs
around 2 inches and surface Tds are forecast to reach the low/mid 70s
again on both days. However, the most robust deep layer shear remains
well north of our area both days and guidance suggests that the
highest MLCAPE on Friday will remain along the Ohio river and then
areas west. For Saturday, instability looks to be a bit more
widespread (around 2000 J/kg+).

With all that being said, heavy rainfall and isolated flooding
issues is the hazard we have the most confidence in right now. There
could very well be a low end severe threat each day (would be gusty
winds with collapsing storms) but the individual pieces haven`t quite
come together yet for higher severe concern at this time.


&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A handful of cu are expected today, especially south of I-70 before
dissipating this evening along with light winds out of the west.
Overnight some high clouds overspread and winds go nearly calm again.
Patchy fog is expected again in river valleys and rural areas. Have
added a handful of VSBY restrictions to fog prone sites, with LUK
going down the hardest.

Fog burns off Thursday morning and scattered cu develop. Chance that
we could end up with a BKN VFR deck but kept things SCT for now.
Winds begin to shift to out of the northwest, around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ070-071-077-078.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>062.
     Air Quality Alert until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-055-056-
     065.
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ091>093.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-
     074.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Aiena
AVIATION...Aiena