119
FXUS61 KILN 120445
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1245 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a Flood Watch for eastern portions of our area Saturday.
Added a chance of precipitation to the forecast for Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Saturday into Saturday
evening.


2) Additional chances for precipitation are expected during the
middle part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A mid level short wave will move through the Ohio Valley later
tonight through Saturday in progressive zonal flow aloft. Southwest
low level flow will develop ahead of this with a 20-30 knot low
level jet shifting into the mid Ohio Valley later tonight into
early Saturday morning. This will lead to a developing chance for
showers and thunderstorms from the southwest later tonight with
scattered showers and thunderstorms then continuing through the day
on Saturday across much of the area. PWs will once again be in the 2
to 2.25 inch range so locally heavy downpours can be expected. Given
the heavy rain over parts of our eastern forecast area the past few
days, have opted to issue a Flood Watch for Saturday for the Scioto
River Valley and parts of northeast Kentucky.

Another mid level short wave will drop down across the southern
Great Lakes on Sunday and this will help push a cold front southeast
across our area through the day on Sunday. Moisture will be more
limited, but it looks like the front may be slow enough for an axis
of 1500-2000 J/KG surface based instability to develop along and
just ahead of the front through Sunday afternoon. This would likely
lead to some scattered thunderstorm development. If this does occur,
deep layer shear will also be increasing through the day. So there
is a conditional chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, with damaging wind the main
threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
Mid level ridging will build up into the Tennessee and mid Ohio
Valley Monday into Tuesday. The ridge will begin to break down
through mid week as a series of mid level short waves move across
the Great Lakes. This will eventually help push another frontal
boundary down into our area, with a developing chance for showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An initial round of showers and storms will move into the area after
09Z. A PROB30 for TSRA was included at the Cincinnati sites, and may
need to be included elsewhere as the precipitation gets closer.
Occasional MVFR conditions are expected across the area this morning
as these showers and storms move through, with the potential for
brief IFR conditions.

Chances for rain will continue through the day, with a mix of VFR and
MVFR ceilings. Afternoon thunderstorm chances have been indicated
with another PROB30 group. Precipitation will come to an end from
late afternoon through early evening, with the potential for MVFR to
IFR conditions building into the area early Sunday morning.

OUTLOOK...Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for
     OHZ055-056-064-065-073-074-079>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for
     KYZ097>100.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Clark
AVIATION...Hatzos