Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
737 FXUS61 KILN 202357 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 757 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Significant flooding is ongoing, particularly in Central Ohio. Additional river rises can also be expected in Central and Western Ohio && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Heaviest rain has pushed east, but ongoing areal and river flooding will continue. 2) Additional storms are expected on Saturday with another cold front sweeping through. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) The recent heavy rainfall has resulted in some extreme flood issues, particularly in Central Ohio. Numerous high water reports and some water rescues occurred this morning, particularly in portions of Licking County, OH. Some of the areal flooding will gradually subside through the day, but additional rises on rivers/creeks will keep significant flooding throughout Central Ohio in particular. Additional river flooding is also expected in portions of the Great Miami River, primarily near Sydney, Miamitown and Middletown. The most significant river flooding is expected along the Licking River. I-70 near Buckeye Lake is currently forecast to go into MAJOR flood stage, cresting near 883.5 ft (which would be a record). This will likely result in significant impacts to I-70 (see flood impact statements in the flood warning), with flooding also expected near the KOA campgrounds and homes near the river channel. Moderate flooding is expected near portions of Newark, Heath and Hebron, with the most significant impacts expected to continue this afternoon and linger into the overnight hours. Impacts from flooding expected to linger a bit longer near Hebron (perhaps continuing into Friday night). Additional rises also expected along the Hocking River, with Enterprise and Circleville currently forecast to go into Minor Flood stage. For updates on the latest river forecasts, visit www.water.noaa.gov. KEY MESSAGE 2) Mid level trough and associated surface cold front will eject through the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Model guidance has been fairly consistent in overall timing of shower/storm activity, with the best chances for pcpn arriving during the afternoon/evening. From a hydro perspective, PWATs aren`t overly impressive, with a brief surge to 1.25" to 1.50" just ahead of the cold front. However, precip will generally be oriented N-S and be fairly progressive, so while a brief period of heavy rain is possible, the flood threat should remain very low. From a severe perspective, modest CAPE develops into our CWA ahead of the cold front, providing enough instability for thunderstorm development. However, marginal wind shear (~20-25 kts effective) will limit the amount of well organized storms and overall damaging wind threat. FZL will be a bit shallower around 11,000 ft, so perhaps isolated large hail could be possible with taller storms. Overall, the severe threat remains low, but isolated damaging wind and large hail appear to be the main threats. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected with the one exception of MVFR pre- daybreak fog, LIFR at KLUK. Fair wx cu today will clear this evening, possibly lingering a few hours at CMH/LCK and to a lesser extent DAY and ILN. Morning fog will lift and another fair wx day is in store for the region with sct cu that could develop into a bkn VFR deck. Light nne wind will turn ely before daybreak but remain under 5kt, then become variable by late day. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Clark AVIATION...Franks