571
FXUS61 KILN 031954
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
354 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Waves of low pressure will result in more rounds of showers and
storms, bringing the prospects for heavy rain and potential flooding
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Scattered periods of light rain continue across the area this
afternoon with all of the thunderstorms focused across southern and
eastern Kentucky. A more consistent stretch of light to moderate rain
extends northward from the convection, resulting in higher PoPs
in southern Ohio and northern Kentucky into the early evening.

Eventually, a strengthening low-level jet enhances over-running
ascent in the Ohio Valley, with a cold front slowly drifting
southward this evening. This supports more widespread periods of
light to moderate rain with corridors of 1-2" by Friday morning.
Locally higher amounts are possible, and depending on the location,
would likely lead to the greatest potential for flash flooding.
Outside of these corridors, general flooding and continued rises on
creeks and rivers are the main concerns.

Given the current distance of stronger thunderstorms to the south,
the local severe threat is now very limited for locations in
southern Ohio and northern Kentucky that remain in the SPC DAY 1
outlook. Can`t rule out some small hail with the strongest cells
with the elevated activity later this evening.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday morning, showers and some thunderstorms are likely ongoing,
especially closer to the Ohio River. Throughout the mid-morning and
into the afternoon, a deepening ridge will begin to push the better
low-level jet stream forcing northward. How the front and associated
rainfall evolves throughout the period is a bit uncertain as
convective/mesoscale processes offset the northward push of the
broader synoptic flow. Eventually, perhaps as late as Friday evening,
the synoptic flow prevails, especially farther to the west as surface
low pressure deepens over the mid Mississippi River Valley. New
convective development forms to the west of the local area, spreading
southeastward into the Ohio Valley Friday evening into Friday night.

If the convective processes can remain established into the
afternoon, warm and moist air attempting to move northward will
encounter surface outflow boundaries and/or the lingering front,
initiating additional thunderstorms. This situation would increase
the potential for localized flash flooding and heavier rainfall. For
now, the WPC DAY 2 ERO Slight Risk is appropriate, but a locally
higher threat may develop based on this scenario.

Severe threat Friday night remains marginal with the more rich
surface moisture and warm temperatures struggling to advect
northward along with meager mid-level lapse rates. So while plentiful
shear is present, the thermodynamic environment is not conducive for
surface based convection through the overnight.

By the close of the short term period, a corridor of thunderstorms is
likely to be occurring over the area, with uncertainty on the exact
placement. Due to the saturation of soils and elevated streams, flooding
and flash flooding will be a concern heading into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The surface boundary will be situated just off to our northwest
Saturday morning with our area mainly in the warm sector. The
boundary will begin to sag down across our area Saturday into
Saturday night as the final wave of low pressure moves east along it.
This will lead to one last round of decent rainfall, mainly Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night. It looks like 1 to 2 inches, with
locally high amounts may be possible with this last batch of pcpn.
This may represent the best chance for flooding/flash flooding
through this longer event, as streams will already be running high by
this point. We will likely end up with a decent temperature gradient
on Saturday with highs ranging from the mid 60s northwest to the low
80s in our far southeast.

The boundary will push off to our southeast through the day on
Sunday as an upper level trough settles in across the Great Lakes
region through mid week. This will lead to below normal temperatures
through the rest of the long term period, with the coolest day
looking to be on Tuesday when daytime highs will only be in the low
to mid 40s.

Some mid level short wave energy moving through the trough will lead
to some lower end chances for showers, particularly Monday afternoon
into Monday night and then again Wednesday night into Thursday.
Thermal profiles may be cool enough Monday night to allow for some
snow to mix in with the showers.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Periods of rain with MVFR/IFR CIGs and MVFR VIS are the main themes
this TAF period as a cold front slowly drops south of the area. The
amount of thunder continues to be of low confidence so kept all
mentions for thunder within the PROB30 category. Even with breaks in
the rain, CIGs and VIS restrictions remain likely through the rest
of the TAF.

Wind directions are a bit different across the area this afternoon as
the front slowly drifts south. Eventually, winds behind the front
become more northeasterly for Friday.


OUTLOOK...Periods of showers and thunderstorms will occur into
Sunday morning. This will result in MVFR/IFR conditions from time to
time.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...McGinnis