238
FXUS61 KILN 101035
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
635 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An active weather pattern continues through mid week. While
specific impact details remain uncertain, multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are likely across the area, bringing an increased
potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Monday morning update (615 am): A remnant cold pool sits over
Indiana and northwest Ohio this morning as weakening thunderstorms
dissipate into an area of light to moderate rain. As it moves into
the area, the cold pool will begin to modify throughout the morning
and into the afternoon. As noted in the 08Z HRRR, there may be enough
forcing on the western edge to initiate new thunderstorms across
central Ohio. If this does not occur, thunderstorms may hold off
until later in the day as detailed in the next section.

Rest of the day Monday: While any thunderstorm coverage during the
morning would complicate factors going into this afternoon and
evening, the broader picture still supports an increased potential
for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Steady southwesterly
flow continues to feed moisture northeastward resulting in plentiful
CAPE across the boundary stretched from east to west from Iowa to
southern Michigan. New thunderstorms will develop along this
boundary, moving east and southeast throughout the late afternoon and
evening. The initial focus will be across northern parts of the area,
but multiple storm clusters may occur before the day is over.
Damaging wind threats will exist with these thunderstorms, and if an
organized line develops, spin-up tornadoes cannot be ruled out. If
back-building results in repetitive storms, flash flooding will
become a higher threat. Have held off on a flood watch for now, but
one may be needed for Tuesday if several rounds of thunderstorms
occur today.

The low level jet remains strong into Monday night. Depending on the
amount of lingering instability, there is plenty of support for
thunderstorms to develop into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday: Ongoing thunderstorms in the morning will complicate the
overall forecast for Tuesday, however, a potent shortwave and
strengthening southwesterly low-level supports an active day
regardless any early activity. Deep-layer shear is stronger Tuesday
when compared to Monday, with forecast soundings indicating 0-6 km
shear of 40-50 knots. If conditions align Tuesday afternoon and
evening, an organized MCS is likely through central Indiana into much
of the local area. Swaths of severe wind and spin-up tornadoes would
be likely as the line moves through the area. The exact placement and
degree of organization of the line is what remains the most
uncertain.

While an organized MCS would likely use much of the instability over
the area, much of the broader synoptic set up remains the same.
Continued southwesterly flow within a strong low level jet will
supply more moisture northeastward. Any lingering outflow boundaries
could be the focus of thunderstorms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. By now, flash flooding may be the main concern with multiple
rounds of thunderstorms. Elevated flash flooding concerns would
likely require a northwest to southeast orientated outflow boundary.
This would support repetitive rounds of thunderstorms over the same
areas versus a progressive line that quickly moves through.

Wednesday: The boundary is likely far enough south that chances for
severe weather and flash flooding begin to decrease for the northern
portions of the area. Another shortwave moves southeastward across
the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, supporting additional
rounds of thunderstorms. Given that this event is still a couple days
away, uncertainty is larger on the exact placement of the impacts.
There is even the possibility that much of the damaging wind and
flash flooding threats would be outside the local area or at least
isolated to the far southern portions of the area.

Rest of Period: Thursday, the mid-level ridge builds in a bit
farther to the north, presenting another opportunity for
thunderstorms. On top of the rainfall from the previous days,
flooding of area rivers could now become an increasing problem. A
strong enough trough progresses into the Northeast US to allow for
a much needed dry period Friday into Saturday. There are signs that
additional moisture may move back to the Ohio Valley, but the
immediate concern is with the events over the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The thunderstorm line near Indianapolis earlier this morning has
weakened, and even the remnant light rain associated with them is
also weakening. Have removed the threat for thunder this morning
through 16Z. Additional development is possible across CMH/LCK by
18Z, with chances increasing to the south later in the evening.
Multiple rounds are possible so additional thunderstorm mention may
be needed after 00Z once the situation becomes more clear this
afternoon.

Outside of any thunderstorm activity, winds are out of the southwest.
Gusts between 20 to 25 knots from around 16Z through 00Z.

Reintroduced chances at CVG starting after 14Z on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McGinnis
AVIATION...McGinnis