Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
522 FXUS61 KILN 111005 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 605 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions persist through the entire forecast period. Increased afternoon shower and storm activity returns to the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The western extent of a surface high over east coast continues to reach into the Ohio Valley today. This synoptic setup will keep weak southwesterly winds in place along with hot, humid conditions. Shower and storm chances remain fairly low this afternoon, but higher than yesterday as the upper level ridging slowly breaks down. An isolated pocket or two of heavy rain is possible into the evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Any diurnal cumulus and afternoon storms fade away after sunset as has been the trend the past few days. Lows drop to near 70 under mostly clear skies. Patchy river valley fog is possible. For Tuesday, the surface high over the east coast finally losses influence over the area as upper level troughing noses in from the west. Storm chances are higher than the past few days by Tuesday afternoon with more forcing and higher PWATs being modeled. Isolated pockets of heavy rain are possible. Additionally, a few strong wind gusts are possible since DCAPEs are likely to reach above 800+ J/kg. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short wave will pass across the lower Great Lakes early in the period. This will result in some marginal shear brushing across northern counties Tuesday night. While instability will have waned by that time, some showers and storms will persist into the night before finally diminishing. Weak cold front will then cross the area on Wednesday with renewed convection developing out ahead of it, but at that point the area will be back into a very weak shear environment. Very shallow west northwest mid level flow will occur through the rest of the week until ridging builds back into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a high pressure center will pass well north of the area in the wake of the front bringing a brief decrease in temperatures and dew points. But once the high center moves east, southerly flow will return, resulting in an airmass similar to that which preceded the midweek front. There will once again be the potential for isolated diurnal convection. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period outside of any isolates shower/storm activity. The only exception may occur at KLUK where river valley fog is possible around sunrise today and once again Tuesday morning. For the rest of today, diurnal VFR cumulus is expected. Some sites may experience a brief shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, but probabilities remains too low for PROB30. Light southerly flow remains in place through 1200z. Southwesterly winds increase to 5-10 knots during the day. Winds relax back below 5 knots once again after 0000z Tuesday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM... AVIATION...Campbell