Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
310 FXUS61 KILN 052256 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 656 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry conditions continue through Monday morning. Rain chances develop by Tuesday when a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Cooler conditions arrive behind the front for the middle and end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure remains centered east of the Ohio Valley. Warm, dry conditions persist this afternoon through tonight along with light southerly flow. Forecast lows tonight drop into the upper 50s to near 60. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure slowly drifts further east of the Ohio Valley on Monday. Upper level ridging also remains in place as it slowly flattens. Lack of forcing and weak moisture return keep rain chances low on Monday although a few spotty showers are possible during the day according to the latest CAM guidance. Southerly winds help spike highs into the low to middle 80s despite increasing moisture and cloud cover. On Monday night, the ridge continues to flatten and a cold front begins approaches the area from the northwest. Higher PWATs arrive late overnight/early Tuesday morning ahead of the front. Widespread rain is likely to develop late with the arrival of better moisture and forcing after midnight. Better rain chances exist northwest of I- 71 prior to sunrise before overspreading to the southeast ahead of the front. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An abnormally odd start to the long term period with the likelihood of widespread wet conditions across the area for the first time in a couple of weeks. A weak system moving northward out of the Gulf Coast will combine with deep troughing over the Midwest Monday night into Tuesday. This combination supports the widespread rainfall chances, with the southern system introducing more abundant deep moisture. So while the trough across the Midwest would have likely resulted in some rainfall chances, the added moisture supports the potential for some modest rainfall accumulations. Current NBM probabilities for 24-hour rainfall amounts of greater than 1" are between 40-60% area wide with the highest probabilities within the greater Tri-State area, northern Kentucky, and southern Ohio. The lowest chances are in west-central Ohio and eastern Indiana. Confidence is fairly high that the trough axis quickly swings through the Ohio Valley Tuesday night, drying out and cooling down the region heading into Wednesday and Thursday. Surface high pressure persists over the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS during these days. Expect high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s, much closer to seasonal normals for early October. The high pressure has its greatest contribution to nighttime low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Generally, temperatures in the 40s are forecast for Thursday morning, but along and north of the I-70 corridor likely sees upper 30s. Friday through Sunday, the upper jet stream pattern begins to become more stagnant as a closed off low pressure settles beneath a building ridge over the Great Lakes and southern Canada. Temperatures are steady through the final days of the long term period given this pattern, with scattered cloudiness each day due to moisture associated with the low pressure. Rainfall chances are currently too low for a mention at this range. For now, the specific details of this forecast are made with low confidence. One of the ways to see this low confidence within the NBM is that current spreads for high and low temperatures are upwards of 6 to 10 degrees different across the ensemble. The exact placement of the low pressure and the associated cloud cover will vary the daily temperatures significantly. If the low pressure is farther south, daytime highs would be warmer and nighttime temperatures, slightly cooler. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mostly clear skies will remain in place through much of the night. This will again allow for some river valley fog development overnight with some VLIFR conditions possible at KLUK. Low level moisture will be spreading north into the Ohio Valley late tonight into Monday morning. This will lead to some sct-bkn VFR cu/stratocu development. It will also be tough to rule out a few light rain showers through Monday morning, especially at the southwest TAF sites. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...