075
FXUS61 KILN 112332
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
732 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a Flood Watch for eastern portions of our area Saturday.
Added a chance of precipitation to the forecast for Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Saturday into Saturday
evening.


2) Additional chances for precipitation are expected during the
middle part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A mid level short wave will move through the Ohio Valley later
tonight through Saturday in progressive zonal flow aloft. Southwest
low level flow will develop ahead of this with a 20-30 knot low
level jet shifting into the mid Ohio Valley later tonight into
early Saturday morning. This will lead to a developing chance for
showers and thunderstorms from the southwest later tonight with
scattered showers and thunderstorms then continuing through the day
on Saturday across much of the area. PWs will once again be in the 2
to 2.25 inch range so locally heavy downpours can be expected. Given
the heavy rain over parts of our eastern forecast area the past few
days, have opted to issue a Flood Watch for Saturday for the Scioto
River Valley and parts of northeast Kentucky.

Another mid level short wave will drop down across the southern
Great Lakes on Sunday and this will help push a cold front southeast
across our area through the day on Sunday. Moisture will be more
limited, but it looks like the front may be slow enough for an axis
of 1500-2000 J/KG surface based instability to develop along and
just ahead of the front through Sunday afternoon. This would likely
lead to some scattered thunderstorm development. If this does occur,
deep layer shear will also be increasing through the day. So there
is a conditional chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, with damaging wind the main
threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
Mid level ridging will build up into the Tennessee and mid Ohio
Valley Monday into Tuesday. The ridge will begin to break down
through mid week as a series of mid level short waves move across
the Great Lakes. This will eventually help push another frontal
boundary down into our area, with a developing chance for showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Complex of showers will move in from the south late tonight and
continue to overspread the region Saturday. Some embedded thunder is
possible, mainly during the daytime hours Saturday.

CIGs will drop to MVFR near the onset of pcpn and persist the
remainder of the taf period. Cannot rule out a reduction to IFR, with
slightly better chances at KCMH/KLCK late in the taf period. Some
MVFR vsbys will also be possible throughout the day tomorrow.

Surface winds shift overnight from the SE to the SW, likely remaining
below 10 kts through the taf period.

OUTLOOK...Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
     OHZ055-056-064-065-073-074-079>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
     KYZ097>100.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Clark
AVIATION...Clark