058
FXUS61 KILN 110009
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
809 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch issued through Tuesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An active weather pattern continues through mid week. While
specific impact details remain uncertain, multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are likely across the area, bringing an increased
potential for damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Update: We continue to recover this afternoon with MLCapes now up to
around 4000 J/KG across much of our west. There is still an
instability min across central Ohio due to the earlier convection,
but there is some concern that even this area may be able to recover
to some degree. A remnant boundary from the earlier convection may
serve as a focus for additional convection as we progress through
the rest of the afternoon. If storms do get going, some severe
storms will be possible given the degree of instability. Damaging
wind and possibly large hail will be the main threats. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #554 has been expanded to include the rest of our
area (in effect until 8 PM).

Previous discussion:
Thunderstorm complex moving southeast across south central Ohio this
afternoon and is just about out of our area. It has pushed out a
boundary that is currently moving slowly southwest across southwest
Ohio. This is moving into a moderately unstable airmass where MLCapes
are in the 3000-3500 J/KG range. We will have to watch this boundary
for some additional redevelopment as we progress through the rest of
the afternoon.

In west to northwest flow aloft, several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms look likely through mid week but timing and location
remain uncertain. There is an increase in the low level jet late
tonight into Tuesday morning so some additional redevelopment may be
possible then. As we destabilize through the day, expect a stronger
line of thunderstorms to affect the area Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening as a mid level short wave moves through. This will be
accompanied by seasonably impressive deep layer shear in the 40 to
60 knot range. As a result, expect the potential for severe storms
with Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind will be the
primary threat.

It looks like another mid level short wave will move through the
area Wednesday into Wednesday night, leading to another round of
storms. Deep layer shear does not look quite as strong as Tuesday,
but some severe storms will remain possible, with damaging wind still
the main threat.

With high PWs in place, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with
the storms. While there remains some uncertainty with thee location
of the storms, wanted to get an FFA out as repeated rounds over the
same locations will result in an increased Flash Flood risk. This may
need to be expanded in both space and time over the next couple o
shifts, depending on convective trends.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Very unstable air mass with persistent northwesterly flow aloft
creating a regime that is favorable for repeated rounds of storms.

The latest complex of storms is currently moving from eastern IN into
western OH around 00z this evening. Our northern terminals will be
most susceptible to this initial round of storms, which is
highlighted by TEMPO groups.

There remains uncertainty with how storm development evolves
overnight into Tuesday, but cannot rule out another round in the
early to late morning hours, and again in the evening to early
overnight hours. Hi resolution models suggesting that the strongest
complex of storms is expected Tuesday evening, which is when the
greatest chance for severe storms will be. Damaging straight-line
winds will be the primary threat, along with heavy rain and
flooding.

CIGs/vsbys primarily remain VFR outside of thunderstorms. KCMH/KLCK
have the best chance for some MVFR CIGs Tuesday morning and early
afternoon.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ091>093-096>100.
IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-074.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...Clark