768
FXUS61 KILN 191046
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
646 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased potential for locally heavy rain late this afternoon into
tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms will develop into the area later this
afternoon and continue through tonight as low pressure and a cold
front move across the area. Locally heavy rain is possible.

2) Additional storms are expected on Saturday with another cold
front sweeping through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Weak impulses moving through the base of a trough will cross the
area today into this evening before a more energetic short wave
passes late tonight into Thursday morning. This will induce a low
along an approaching front.

The cold front will remain north of the area until late afternoon
and then sag into the area this evening. Some scattered showers and
thunderstorms may occur this afternoon in the warm sector. More
robust convection is forecast to occur near the front and ahead of
the low as the nose of a low level jet pushes into the region.
Precipitable water will increase to around 1.7 to 1.8 inches and the
warm cloud layer will be deepening which will lead to efficient
rainfall producing storms. Given the alignment of the convection
along the boundary, there may be persistent or repeated heavy
rainfall in a west-east axis. High resolution models are now showing
a more pronounced stripe of higher QPF somewhere near the I-70
corridor.

As the low moves through, the trailing front will be aligned more
northeast to southwest. And while showers and storms along this
portion of the boundary may still produce heavy rain, this activity
will be much more transient and thus any higher rainfall totals will
be rather localized. All activity will pass off to the east towards
daybreak Thursday.


KEY MESSAGE 2)
Short wave digging into a mean trough from the Great Lakes into the
southern Appalachians will move into the area on Saturday. This will
bring the next cold front. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that
it will come through during Saturday afternoon and evening. There is
some potential for stronger storms out ahead of this front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR will prevail through through about 06z outside of any convection.
There will be a chance of storms, mainly in the KDAY area after 20Z.
Better chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be after 00Z
area wide. Moistening low levels will result in ceilings dropping to
MVFR late with the potential for some IFR ceilings. Visibilities may
drop to MVFR as well.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. MVFR to IFR
ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35