190
FXUS61 KILN 121050
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
650 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Saturday into Saturday
evening.

2) Additional chances for precipitation are expected during the
middle part of next week, along with warming temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

As surface high pressure over New York moves east, and ridging over
the southeastern states does the same, southerly flow over the Ohio
Valley will increase today. There is already considerable theta-e
advection occurring at 850mb-700mb ahead of a shortwave, with
convection ongoing in southern Indiana. This elevated convection will
represent the first of several chances of storms over the next 24-48
hours. Precipitable water values are already well over an inch and a
half across the area, and some heavy rainfall will be possible as the
storms move into the Cincinnati tri-state region after 09Z.

The larger concern for heavy rain today will be with diurnally-driven
storms ahead of the approaching shortwave this afternoon.
Precipitable water values will be about 2 inches, if not slightly
higher, suggesting that storms will be capable of efficient rain
rates. HREF PMM products suggest the potential for 2-4 inch rainfall
amounts in areas with training or slow-moving storms, though
certainly the exact placement of where this will occur is outside of
the scope of this prediction. The flood watch will remain in place as
previously issued, as the diurnal timing and greatest atmospheric
moisture content are most aligned with the eastern ILN CWA. Could not
discount the possibility of a strong storm this afternoon, but thin
CAPE profiles and marginal shear will preclude a larger threat.

Going into Sunday, attention will turn to a surface cold front, which
is lagging well behind the shortwave moving in on Saturday. This
front will remain north of the ILN CWA until Sunday, which means that
temperatures will be able to get warm ahead of it, with highs in the
lower to upper 80s. This also means that enough instability (around
1500 J/kg SBCAPE) will build to produce some degree of a severe
threat. Shear is not especially impressive, but there is some
reasonably favorable deep-layer westerly flow. Storm coverage is not
looking hugely impressive, though, with PoPs still in the chance
range.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

With the frontal boundary well south of the region on Monday, and
high pressure settling in over the Great Lakes, dry conditions are
expected for the ILN CWA on Monday. This will also be the coolest day
of the period, with highs only in the mid to upper 70s.

A larger shift to the weather pattern is expected to begin Tuesday,
with strong ridging (or even a closed high) setting up over the
southeastern states. The main storm track and frontal zone will
remain north of the ILN CWA to begin on Tuesday, but will shift
southward as the ridge breaks down going into Wednesday and Thursday.
Ahead of this occurring, temperatures may get quite warm, with highs
in the upper 80s to near 90 on Wednesday. Storm chances will increase
on Wednesday, then more significantly on Thursday, as the frontal
zone drifts southward into the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and storms are moving northeast through the area this
morning. MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions are expected. Outside of
storms, occasional MVFR conditions are expected across the area this
morning as well.

Chances for rain will continue through the day, with a mix of VFR
and MVFR ceilings. Afternoon thunderstorm chances have been indicated
with another PROB30 group. Precipitation will come to an end from
late afternoon through early evening, with the potential for MVFR to
IFR conditions building into the area early Sunday morning. IFR
ceilings appear likely for the Columbus TAF sites early Sunday
morning.

OUTLOOK...Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ055-056-064-065-073-074-
     079>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ097>100.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hatzos