893
FXUS61 KILN 121138
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
638 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Wintry mix Wednesday morning will eventually transition to
rainfall during the day. However, freezing rain is possible for
some of our northwestern counties today and tonight as they
will remain on the cooler side of the surface low. Low pressure
exits early Thursday morning, resulting in drier conditions
through the end of the work week. Another low pressure system
will usher in mostly rain on Saturday, followed by a transition
to snow Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 11AM this
morning. 850mb convergence axis has aligned itself right
through the ILN fa early this morning, resulting in a prolonged
period of snowfall. Radar continues to display snow showers
redeveloping from the southwest as ample moisture clashes with
the low level convergence axis. Additionally, this moisture
currently remains in the DGZ for most of our counties, so we
could see additional snow accumulations up to an inch in spots.
However, warmer air will begin to intrude the lowest few
thousand feet of the atmosphere over the next couple of hours,
pushing the lift/moisture out of the DGZ. This loss of ice
nucleation will lead to patchy freezing rain/drizzle through the
mid-morning hours where precip lingers, primarily for portions
of southern OH/northern KY. While roads will most likely be
treated, be aware that some icy spots could develop, especially
on elevated surfaces.

Coverage in pcpn will be at a minimum around the late
morning/early afternoon hours today. By the mid to late
afternoon, coverage in precip will really begin to increase from
the south as a strong low pressure system begins its northern
track from the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures will remain in the
30s to lower 40s across our CWA during the daytime hours,
increasing further tonight. However, our far northwestern
counties may remain at or just below the freezing mark,
resulting in some freezing rain accumulations. Most of the
freezing rain will likely be on elevated surfaces, but a few icy
spots may develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Low pressure center will continue to shift northward tonight and
track right through our fa. As the center of the low continues
to approach us, WAA will result in non-diurnal temps tonight.
The warmest temperatures will actually occur after midnight,
increasing into the middle to upper 40s in portions of central
OH down into north-central KY. Temperatures in our far
northwestern counties on the other hand will remain fairly
unchanged, hovering right around the freezing mark. Mercer
County still has the best chance for the highest ice amounts,
near 0.10". The gradient in ice accumulation quickly decreases
through the next tier of counties to the south and east, but
will have to monitor temperature trends for potential changes in
overall ice amounts.

Precipitation will gradually get shunted eastward tonight,
beginning shortly after midnight around the Tristate and areas
north. Surface temperatures will finally begin to decrease
early Thursday morning behind the cold front, with dry
conditions returning by daybreak. Surface high pressure will
nudge in from the west, eroding some of the clouds by the
afternoon hours. The warmest temperatures on Thursday will be
during the early morning hours, especially for locations SE of
I-71 as CAA ensues.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley Thursday
night and then slide off to the east through the day on Friday. With
winds becoming light and clearing skies, temperatures Thursday
night will be seasonably cold with lows in the 10 to 15 degree
range. In developing return flow through the day on Friday,
temperatures will begin to rebound somewhat with daytime highs in
the 30s.

A mid and upper level trough will pivot east across the central to
eastern CONUS through the weekend. In developing southwest flow
ahead of this, some isentropically induced pcpn will develop/spread
into our area Friday night with widespread pcpn then continuing
through the day Saturday and into Saturday night as a developing
surface low lifts northeast across the Ohio Valley. Thermal
profiles across our north will initially support snow and/or a rain
snow mix Friday night before we warm enough through the day on
Saturday to transition over to mainly all rain. Temperatures
on Saturday will range from the upper 30s far north to the lower 50s
in our far south.

With a strengthening 50-60 knot 850 mb jet nosing up into the mid
Ohio Valley, good moisture advection will occur through the day on
Saturday and into Saturday night with PWs pushing well over an inch
across much of our area. As a result, locally heavy rainfall will be
possible with both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means giving
probabilities in excess of 50 to 60 percent of greater than
2 inches of rainfall into our southeast Saturday into Saturday
night. This would be enough to lead to flooding concerns,
especially for areas along and southeast of the I-71 corridor.

As the low lifts off to our northeast, some cooler air will
be pulled in behind it later Saturday night and through the
day on Sunday. This will allow for the rain to mix with and
then change over to snow from the northwest before ending through
the day on Sunday. Some light snow accumulations will be possible,
especially across northern portions of our area. In good CAA,
temperatures will fall off through the day on Sunday with afternoon
readings ranging from the mid 20s northwest to the lower 30s in our
southeast.

An unseasonably cold surface high pressure system will build
southeast into the region Monday into Tuesday This will lead to
mainly dry conditions. Daytime highs on Monday and Tuesday will only
range from the upper teens in the far north to around 30 degrees
across our south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patchy -FZRA/FZDZ will linger through the mid morning hours,
mainly across KCVG/KLUK and perhaps KILN. Additionally, some
light snow will move through KCMH/KLCK during the first couple
hours of the taf period, which will likely cause MVFR vsby
reductions, perhaps brief periods of IFR as well.

Probabilities are very high in IFR CIGs developing today, and
there remains a strong signal for LIFR CIGs to also develop
later today/tonight. This is in response to a surface low that
will track right through the Ohio Valley. In addition to the
lowering CIGs, periods of rainfall can be expected this
afternoon/evening. There may be a brief lull in the rain early
tonight before the cold front pushes through, which would result
in pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall ahead of the front.

Vsbys will lower today as BR develops. IFR CIGs are becoming
more likely based on consistent model guidance showing this
potential, becoming more widespread tonight.

Surface winds will shift from the northeast to southeast today,
remaining around 10 kts. Eventually, a cold front will move
through tonight and result in a shift to the northwest. Winds
will increase behind the front.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through Thursday,
and again from Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 4 AM EST Thursday
     for OHZ026-034-035-042>044.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Clark