496
FXUS61 KILN 141824
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY
224 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and storms return this week, with warming temperatures
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Surface high pressure will drift through the Great Lakes today, with
dry conditions for the ILN CWA, and high temperatures in the 70s.

As the high moves off to the east, a larger shift to the weather
pattern is expected to begin on Tuesday, with strong ridging (or
even a closed high) setting up over the southeastern states. The push
of warm and moist air from the south will bring temperatures into the
80s to near 90 on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Some heat index
values near 100 may be possible in the southern parts of the forecast
area on Wednesday.

The main frontal zone and storm track will be north of the ILN CWA to
begin on Tuesday, but this will shift southward with time as the
ridge breaks down. Recent model runs suggest this may happen a little
sooner than previously expected, with chances for storms encroaching
on the northern ILN CWA as early as Tuesday night. Occasional rounds
of showers and storms are then expected Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday, until the front finally moves south of the region late Friday
into the weekend.

With building instability, and some increase in wind flow working
into the area from north to south, some degree of severe threat may
end up occurring during the week. However, with precipitable water
values of 2" or greater, and the potential for several rounds of
storms during the week, the flood threat may end up being the bigger
concern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Mainly VFR conditions should continue through the TAF period.
However, some MVFR to IFR fog is possible in valleys of southeast OH
and near the Ohio River overnight and early Tuesday morning
(including KLUK).

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible in some locations at times from
Tuesday night through Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hatzos
AVIATION...JKL