034
FXUS61 KILN 192318
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
718 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place across the region through
Friday. A fast-moving disturbance will offer scattered showers
and a few storms Friday night as it pushes east through the
Great Lakes. After a warm and dry weekend, a frontal boundary
will move into the area early next week, bringing somewhat
cooler temperatures and a chance for showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Update was insignificant this evening regarding changes to the
current forecast. Dropped temps just a bit and lowered sky cover
which was already pretty minimal.

Weak high pressure and a mid-level ridge will continue to
provide dry weather and light winds tonight. Outside of some
river valley fog, mostly clear skies are expected. Guidance is
picking up on a slightly higher potential for patchy fog in
central Ohio in the vicinity of the Licking and Hocking Rivers,
so have added this to the grids in the near term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
After another quiet day on Friday, the mid level ridge axis
will flatten a bit late in the day into overnight as a
disturbance pushes east through the Great Lakes states. The
latest guidance has come in more energetic with this system.
Consistent with the CAMs (including forecast soundings), have
added a chance of showers and isolated storms from late Friday
evening through Friday night. The best chance of measurable rain
will be north of I-70, but can`t rule out a brief shower
anywhere in the CWA. Either way, QPF will be light due to the
scattered nature of the precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The Ohio Valley will be between systems this weekend while anomalous
upper level ridging remains in place. Light winds can be expected on
Saturday and Sunday with above average temperatures and above
average PWATs. Forecast highs are near 90 both days Forecast lows
are in the lower to middle 60s. Humidity may be somewhat noticeable
with dew points near 60. Although an isolated shower or storm may be
possible each afternoon, overall chances remain very low without
much forcing in place.

Ensemble guidance is showing a possible increase in rain chances
next week with the possibility of a low pressure system and cold
front moving through the area. The resulting forecast shows a
decrease in temperatures Monday through Wednesday with chances for
rain. We will have to see if forecast QPF amounts can increase to
provide some relief from the drought across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another period of VFR conditions will be found through Friday
evening. Some valley fog may affect LUK for an hour or two
before dawn, but if last night was a proxy, it should be fairly
minimal.

An area of upward motion is noted at h7 in the extended 30 hour
time frame, working from northwest to southeast. Little h5
vorticity is found, and the airmass this upward motion is
entering is pretty dry. Any shower potential looks to be beyond
the forecast period and quite minimal. Generally expect a VFR
cloud deck to cross the region, possibly drop into the higher
MVFR category but again, beyond the forecast period.

OUTLOOK...Hazardous weather is not expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Franks