272
FXUS61 KILN 310909
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
409 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring rain to the area today. A cold
front will bring an end to the rain this evening and usher in
cooler air for Saturday. Dry and mild conditions are forecast
for the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A southern stream mid level low over the Mid MS Valley to eject
northeast and open up tracking into the Ohio Valley Friday.
Widespread rainfall has been observed across the far southern
counties in response to favorable moisture transport associated
with a 55-65 KT low level jet. Heaviest rainfall footprint looks
to stay just south of ILN/s area with rainfall totals of 1.25
to 1.5 inches across portions of Northern Kentucky.

As the low level jet shifts east the widespread rain will taper
off this morning - with a threat for scattered showers continuing
thru the day. An associated surface low will track across
northern Indiana and northern Ohio with a cold front beginning
to move into the area late in the day. On the warm side of the
system - highs to range from the upper 40s northwest to the
lower 60s south of the Ohio River.

In a region of abundant low level moisture and with a lighter
easterly flow - areas of dense fog have developed across
portions of East Central Indiana and West Central Ohio. HREF
probabilities keep these vsbys below a half mile thru mid
morning. Therefore, have issued a dense fog advsy thru 10 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Surface low track thru Northern Ohio with trailing cold front
pushing south thru the area this evening. Precipitation chances
diminish after FROPA. Winds shift to north behind the front and
temperatures drop behind the front. Areas along and north of
I-70 should bottom out in the mid and upper 20s while areas
along and south of the Ohio River drop to the lower and middle
30s.

Northwest to west mid level flow with a large area of high
pressure passing thru the Great Lakes Saturday. Early clouds
look to give way to increasing sunshine Saturday afternoon. High
temperatures to range from the mid 30s north to the mid/upper
40s south of the Ohio River.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is not a clear signal for precipitation from the Saturday
night through daytime hours on Tuesday timeframe and therefore went
with a dry forecast at this time.

Tuesday night through Thursday will be a more active pattern with
several rounds of precipitation. Given several rounds of
precipitation, cannot rule out some isolated flooding concerns. Will
continue to monitor to see if mention needs to be added to the HWO
in the future.

While precipitation during this time period is expected generally to
be rain, cannot rule out a wintry mix of precipitation at times,
primarily Tuesday night and Thursday night. Overall expect
temperatures to be above normal through most of the long term,
however a cool down is expected Thursday night at the end of the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A southerly fetch of moisture ahead of low pressure in the
Plains will offer unsettled weather across the region today.
Low clouds, fog, and areas of rain will affect the TAF sites
this morning ahead of an associated warm front. MVFR conditions
will drop to IFR. The best coverage of rain will occur south of
the TAF sites with KCVG and KLUK on the northern periphery of
the solid rain axis.

Rain generally decreases in coverage and lightens up through
12Z, but additional showers and periods of light rain will continue
into the early afternoon before some drier air attempts to push
in from the southwest. As drier air moves in there will be some
improvements to ceilings with a period of VFR possible as the
area is briefly in the warm sector ahead of the surface low.
This improvement will be brief with MVFR to IFR ceilings moving
back in from the north associated with a cold front this
evening.

Southeast winds become southwesterly this afternoon and flow
increases with gusts of 20-25 knots. The winds shift to the
north around 10 kts with the passage of the cold front this
evening. A period of LLWS is also possible mainly from 12Z to
20Z from south to north across the area, associated with a
40-45 KT low level jet.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions likely through Saturday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ034-042-
     060-070.
KY...None.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ050-058-
     059-066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR