137
FXUS61 KILN 031651
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1251 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A relatively quiet stretch of weather is expected locally through
the week, with periodic low-end shower and storm chances,
particularly Tuesday. Nevertheless, coverage should remain fairly
limited through midweek, with even less coverage for the end of the
upcoming week. Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are
expected for the foreseeable future, with a return to more
seasonably humid conditions by Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
At the sfc, very dry air remains entrenched across the region with
sfc high pressure centered over the ern Great Lakes. E/NE sfc flow
will continue to supply dry LL air into the area through today, even
with the approach of a meandering weak low N into the region from
the TN Vly. This system will gradually move to the NNW through the
day on Monday into the SW OH Vly, bringing with it a narrow
corridor/axis of higher LL moisture/dewpoints, which should initially
focus just to the W/SW of the ILN FA. This axis of better LL
moisture and slightly better forcing should produce scattered to
numerous showers/storms by late in the day to the W/SW of the local
area, with perhaps a stray SHRA possible in N KY and SE IN where LL
moisture availability will be slightly better. But most, if not all,
spots remain dry through tonight.

Highs today will reach into the lower 80s by late afternoon amidst
abundant sunshine before dipping into the upper 50s once again
tonight. There will be a bit more cloud cover near/S of the OH Rvr
through the day today into tonight, keeping overnight temps in the
lower 60s for far srn parts of the local area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
With the meandering low drifting to the NW into SW parts of the
region, the best moisture advection should occur to the SW of the
ILN FA through Monday as LL flow remains generally easterly, helping
replenish dry air from the E. There certainly will still be some
erosion to the dry air locally, but it will happen rather slowly
through the next 24-48 hours. There will be a chance for a few
showers and perhaps an isolated storm by early in the afternoon
across the Tri-State before drier air attempts to move back in from
the E. The best chance for a few showers/storms locally may evolve
late Monday night into Tuesday as the aforementioned low weakens and
becomes a diffuse LL wave, which will continue to drift to the NW.
This will allow for LL flow to have a more SSE component come Monday
night, enhancing some better moisture advection into S/SW parts of
the local area toward Tuesday morning and beyond.

Highs on Monday top out in the lower to mid 80s from SW to NE,
respectively. More expansive cloud cover in the Tri-State will
likely keep temps a bit cooler in these locales than for spots
further to the NE where filtered sunshine will be more prevalent.
However, a trend toward cloudier conditions should evolve from SW to
NE through the day. Lows Monday night will be closer to seasonal
norms, generally in the mid 60s, as better precip chances evolve in N
KY into the Tri-State and ern IN toward daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The Ohio Valley will remain on the western fringe of a surface high
centered over southeastern Canada this upcoming week. A gradual
warming and moistening trend occurs through the end of the week with
the highest theta e air arriving late in the week on southerly
winds. More of a southeasterly component off the Appalachians could
help to dry out the air some for the midweek with downsloping.
Increasing afternoon shower/storm chances accompany the more
summerlike air by Thursday or Friday. Ensemble guidance suggests
lows remain above early August averages while highs remain slightly
below average until Thursday or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW/SCT VFR Cu are expected through the remainder of the daytime,
particularly for sites of KCVG/KLUK/KILN/KCMH/KLCK, with clearer
skies favored near KDAY. Better moisture advection will occur from
the S toward/beyond daybreak Monday, with some BKN VFR Cu expected
for SW sites of KCVG/KLUK toward the end of the period.
Additionally, some better mid/high level moisture will allow for
expanding cloud cover area-wide late in the period as well.

The period should remain dry, with the lone exception being the
small potential for a stray SHRA/TSRA near KCVG/KLUK toward/beyond
18z Monday. Most of the widespread activity should remain to the SW
of even these sites, but there is enough uncertainty regarding the
axis of better moisture/forcing to mention here for awareness
purposes and have a PROB30 at the KCVG 30-hr TAF.

ENE winds around 10kts will subside past sunset to 5kts or less,
generally remaining 5-10kts out of the E through Monday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KC