901
FXUS61 KILN 151038
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
638 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid for the rest of the week.

2) Showers and storms return late in the week and through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Strong mid level ridge extending across the region will start to
weaken and shift southwards a bit tomorrow. Temperatures will rise
into the lower to mid 90s today with the hottest readings across
northern counties. That will push a bit southward tomorrow. Heat
index forecast is right around the advisory threshold of 100 both
days. The heat advisory already issued for today seems to
appropriately cover locations with the greater potential to reach or
exceed 100 beyond just isolated spots. With the forecast tomorrow
right around the threshold, opted to allow for another look at new
data later today to see if that resolves if/where an advisory might
be needed on Thursday.

Increasing clouds and convection will keep air temperatures from
being quite so high on Friday and especially Saturday. However, the
dew point will be higher in a very moist environment. So the heat
index will still be in the mid to upper 90s.


KEY MESSAGE 2)
A pattern change will occur heading into the end of the week as a
trough over eastern Canada deepens and eventually extends across the
eastern US. Friday will be a transition day with a weak short wave
coming out of the central Plains into the lower Great Lakes/mid Ohio
Valley between stronger flow to the north and the departing high.
A reservoir of deep moisture will get drawn north and then east with
precipitable water increasing to 1.8 to 2.0 inches. It will be
unstable with CAPE approaching 2000 J/kg in western counties. So
showers and thunderstorms will develop into the area through the day.

Stronger short wave dropping out of the Canadian Plains will track
across the Great Lakes Saturday into Saturday night. The area will be
slightly more unstable than Friday. This will result in more showers
and storms through the area with locally heavy rainfall possible.
There could be some lingering precipitation into Sunday as an
associated front crosses the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Valley fog at KLUK will dissipate early in the period, but then
redevelop after 06Z. Otherwise, there will just be a few cumulus at
most underneath thin high clouds.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ070-071-077-078.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
     Air Quality Alert until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-055-056-
     065.
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ091>093.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-
     074.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35