Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
915 FXUS61 KILN 090039 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 839 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased coverage of precipitation chances today and also increased cloud cover. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An increase in heat and humidity is expected through Wednesday. 2) A system will bring thunderstorms to the region Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring the potential for severe weather Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours and a flood potential Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A warm day will be in place for Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Some heat index values around the tri-state will be near advisory criteria. There is some uncertainty with cloud cover moving in if this will keep temperatures from reaching criteria, however either way expect hot conditions and have mention in the HWO. KEY MESSAGE 2) A few pop up thunderstorms will be possible into the evening hours before dissipating this evening. During the day on Wednesday thunderstorms are expected to develop in advance of a cold front. There is some uncertainty on where initiation will begin with some solutions showing storms developing and moving into northwest portions of the region and other solutions developing thunderstorms beginning generally northwest of Interstate 71. The greatest threat is across locations northwest of Interstate 71. There is marginal risk for storms across most of the region except for far southeastern portions of the area. The severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening will transition over to a flash flood threat overnight Wednesday night into Thursday. Moisture transport vectors show a west to east orientation so there is some concern that there will be a flood potential if multiple storms move over the same area. Thunderstorm activity will gradually taper off late Thursday into Thursday night. Have both the severe and flash flood threat mentioned in the HWO. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A few showers developed across central Ohio where BL CAPE around 1000 J/KG existed at the nose of low level theta-e advection. These showers are dissipating and exiting the area. Cumulus clouds decreasing with the loss of daytime heating and only expect some high level clouds and scattered mid level clouds. Some gradient will exist tonight but valleys should become nearly calm allowing for fog development. Therefore have fog mention at KLUK. Winds will pick up during the day on Wednesday and have wind gusts of 20-25 kts during the afternoon. The northern portion of the mid level ridge is flattened as a shortwave tracks thu the Great Lakes on Wednesday. An axis of moderate instability develops ahead of a surface cold front where dewpoints in the lower 70s will exist. Thunderstorms will develop and overspread the TAF sites from northwest to southeast from mid afternoon thru the late evening. Have a mention of thunderstorms for this threat. Some of the storms may contain gusty to damaging winds. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday evening into Thursday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday night into Friday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...AR