164
FXUS61 KILN 050526
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
126 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue through Saturday as high pressure
pushes across the Great Lakes. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible on Sunday thanks to a cold front trailing
Canadian low pressure. Dry weather is forecast to return for the
remainder of next week as high pressure builds across most of
the United States.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface high pressure resides over the region once again
tonight. Mostly clear skies, light winds will help produce some
river valley fog once again, but not expecting any dense fog
from this. A slight increase in dewpoint temperatures will keep
lows primarily in the 50s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Dry weather will prevail through the period as high pressure
moves to the Atlantic Coast. Increasing southerly winds will be
observed by Sunday morning as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the next cold front. Above normal temperatures are
forecast to persist, with highs reaching the mid 70s to around
80, followed by lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front attached to a strong low in Canada progresses through
the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Warm and breezy southwesterly flow ahead
of the front will cause temperatures to reach into the 80s areawide
before FROPA later Sunday afternoon. Some degree of moisture return
ahead of the front appears likely with dew points and PWATs reaching
above seasonal averages. This moisture increase could allow for some
instability ahead of the front. Low end chances for a few
showers/thunderstorms are highlighted especially across central Ohio
through southeast Ohio Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures drop after FROPA Sunday night and high pressure will
build in through at least mid-week. Highs next week generally remain
near 70 areawide with lows in the middle 40s under abundant
sunshine. Beyond the low end chances for precipitation on Sunday,
dry conditions appear highly likely through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period everywhere,
with the lone exception being some MVFR, or brief IFR, VSBYs at
KLUK in the several hour period around daybreak due to river
valley BR. However the setup for such VSBY reductions is not as
favorable as was the case for the past several mornings, so
confidence in this occurring is still somewhat low.

Patches of 7-9kft clouds continue to percolate about W/SW
portions of the region, with the expectation for this SCT deck
to slowly drift to the E more into wrn parts of the local area
toward daybreak before eventually decreasing in coverage late in
the day. This has resulted in the addition of some better cloud
cover into the fcst, mainly for wrn sites of
KCVG/KLUK/KDAY/KILN through the daytime before skies trend
clearer late in the period once again.

Light NE winds will go more easterly around daybreak before
becoming southerly around 5-8kts for the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KC