134
FXUS61 KILN 072326
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
726 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will meander across the region through Sunday,
providing periods of showers and storms. Some of the storms will
produce locally heavy rainfall. In this active weather pattern,
another front pushes through the area Monday. Seasonably warm and
humid conditions will prevail until some slightly drier air returns
in the wake of the front by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A weak surface front has stalled close to the Ohio River parallel to
the zonal westerly mid level flow. Marginal instability combined
with marginal instability will continue to lead to the development of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms thru the aftn across
the south in the vicinity of this frontal boundary (mainly along and
south of the Ohio River).

Another convective complex to approach from the southwest late in the
day into early evening. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms
to move into far southwest and then track east across the area thru
the evening and into the overnight hours.

Instability looks to be marginal with MLCAPE values approaching 1000
J/KG but favorable moisture will be in place with PWats increasing
to about 150% of seasonal norms as moisture increases. Heavy rainfall
rates will be observed and local flooding will be possible from
training activity. Widespread rainfall of a half to one inch will be
likely with locally higher amounts possible.

The greatest potential for heavy rain and localized flooding looks to
be across the Tri-State region and southwest Ohio this evening. This
potential for heavy rain may persist through most of the night,
mainly near the surface low - where convergence will be maximized
across east central IN, the Miami Valley and west central OH.

Low tonight range from the lower to the middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Progressive mid level shortwave and associated surface low over the
area at sunrise Sunday shifts off to the east during the aftn.
Convective activity decreases from west to east in the morning
across most of the area. However, additional isold to scattered
showers/thunderstorms will be possible during the aftn with the best
coverage across the east.

Highs on Sunday top out in the mid and upper 70s.

Expect a lull in convective activity Sunday evening into the first
part of the overnight hours in the wake of the departing surface low.


A larger mid level trough digs into the Great Lakes and upper
Midwest Sunday night into Monday. Moisture and instby axis develops
into the west late with a front moving into the area late. Have
chance pops into the west late in response to this front.

Low Sunday night are generally in the lower and middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With the low pressure system from Sunday morning now cleared to the
east of the area, attention shifts to the larger trough digging into
the Great Lakes and upper Midwest. An occluded low pressure system
in the upper Midwest will have a cold front extending southward
through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley Monday morning. A
ribbon of moisture ahead of the cold front supports the development
of showers and thunderstorms across the area Monday, especially into
the afternoon. Based on the current timing of the front, the highest
coverage of thunderstorms is expected along and south of the I-71
corridor during the afternoon and evening before shifting out of the
area. Instability is fairly meager with poor mid-level lapse rates
limiting the potential for higher values. Given the modest wind
shear (~40 knots), can`t rule out an isolated strong/severe
thunderstorm across southern Ohio/northern Kentucky in the late
afternoon/evening hours.

A secondary cold front moves through on Tuesday, with small chances
for a few pop-up showers across the area. Otherwise, a short period
of drier weather is anticipated for Tuesday night through much of
Thursday. There will be steady warm-up Wednesday into Thursday
before deeper moisture and a weak system bring chances for rainfall
back into the forecast. The weak system may close-off in the
southern Plains Wednesday, so there is still some uncertainty on
when rainfall chances will precisely arrive back into the Ohio
Valley. Confidence is much higher for return to showers and
thunderstorms on Friday.

Temperatures are near to slightly below normal Monday and Tuesday
before the warm-up to above normal temperatures Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Getting a little tired of this frontal boundary hanging out over us,
as it has been creating very messy TAFs for the last 3 days or so.
The trend continues this evening as an area of low pressure rides
along the stalled front...

As the low pushes east into the Tri-State from western Kentucky/
Illinois area, a shield of rain will overspread all TAF sites from
southwest (Tri-State) to northeast (central Ohio) during the
overnight hours tonight. There is some instability present, so have a
PROB30 for -TSRA for the first half of the overnight.

Rain may be heavy at times. VSBYs and CIGs should fall with VSBYs
likely falling to MVFR/IFR and CIGs falling to IFR during the early
morning hours. Rain tapers off Sunday morning, again from west to
east. VSBYs will improve after sunrise and CIGs will slowly rise
throughout Sunday morning into early afternoon.

Thanks to the stalled boundary, winds have been very light to calm
throughout the region. This trend continues overnight. However, by
Sunday afternoon, the low pressure will be pulling off to the east
and we`ll see west/northwesterly flow around 10 knots. Southern sites
(KCVG, KLUK, KILN) may even have some afternoon gusts around 18-20
knots, but did not include in TAFs just yet.

OUTLOOK...Some storms will be possible Sunday late night into
Monday. MVFR CIGs are possible again Sunday and Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ046-055-056-065.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...CA