823
FXUS61 KILN 251052
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
652 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid airmass will interact with a frontal boundary that
stalls across the region. This will offer an active weather pattern
through the weekend with several days of thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid level ridge remains centered over the south US with a band of
westerlies from the Northern Plains thru the Great Lakes. Embedded
mid level short wave to track thru the Great Lakes today. Convective
activity to our northwest to enter our northwest this morning with
most of the CAM solutions showing this activity weakening as it
enters ILN/s area.

New thunderstorm develop this aftn is likely along remnant boundary
from morning activity. In the moist environment good instability
will exist but shear looks to be weak. Locally strong storms will
be possible, but the primary concern will be locally heavy rainfall.

00Z HREF LPMM 24-hour output continues to show potential of 2"+
amounts. Most favored area is north of I-70 with lower pops along and
south of the Ohio River.

In the very humid airmass high temperatures warm to readings ranging
from the upper 80s north to the lower 90s south. In the southern half
of the FA - where less clouds and pcpn will occur expect heat indices
to top out in the lower 100s. Therefore, have continued the heat
advisory today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Stalled frontal boundary slowly lifts north into northern Ohio
overnight. Lingering shower and thunderstorms are in the forecast
tonight with the best coverage across the north. Another warm
and humid night is expected with low temperatures in the lower and
middle 70s.

Shortwave tracking thru the southern Great Lakes combined with
MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/Kg will lead to convective development
Saturday afternoon. The best coverage of storms looks to be along and
north of I-70 with trends showing overall better storm coverage.
Given the very moist environment - heavy rain and localized flooding
will be the main threat. Strong to damaging winds will also be
possible with the most favored area north of I-70. High temperatures
to range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Maximum heat indices
will approach 100 in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Large scale mid level ridging over southeast CONUS continues to
slowly retrograde west with the ILN CWA on the northern periphery of
this feature. A stalled out surface boundary will lay out across our
north, continuing to be the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development as weak disturbances travel along it. PWATs still
forecast to be 160% of normal so any storms that fire off will have
efficient rainfall rates, leading to localized flooding instances.

Given this boundary stretched across our north (I-70 region) the
warmest temperatures should remain along the Ohio River to the
south. While the entire region will be hot and muggy, Saturday and
Sunday apparent temps reach the upper 90s to low 100s along the Ohio
River.

The mid level ridge continues its trek westward and significant
height rises work into the region on Monday, ushering in a
reinforced blast of hot air with continued low end diurnal PoP
chances for the start of the working week. Again, nighttime relief
will be minimal, with overnight lows only falling to the mid 70s.

Long range ensembles continue to hint at a system sinking down
through the Great Lakes/ mid-Atlantic region bringing some drier air
behind it sometime in the mid-week timeframe. Details will continue
to become clearer on this, however we`ll hopefully get a reprieve
from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An area of thunderstorms entering west central Ohio will push east
into the area and weaken this morning. These storms may affect the
northern TAF sites prior to diminishing. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions
are possible in storms with VFR conditions generally observed
outside of storms.

VFR conditions are expected to continue into this afternoon outside
of shower and thunderstorm activity. Shower and storm chances spread
south during the afternoon. Coverage remains uncertain so have
continued only a prob30 mention for thunder at this time.

Light southwesterly winds continue into this morning before veering
to the west during the afternoon and then back again to the southwest
at 5 kts or less tonight.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day
through Monday, particularly in the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ063>065-070>074-
     077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR