Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
173 FXUS61 KILN 040620 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 220 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible today as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night into Saturday morning as another cold front moves through the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Line of showers and thunderstorms will push east across our area through daybreak ahead of a cold front that will move east across our area through early afternoon. This activity is moving into a less favorable environment, so expect a general weakening trend in the thunderstorms over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, the upper level trough axis will pivot east across our area through this afternoon. This will lead to a continued chance for showers and a few thunderstorms this morning, with chances then decreasing from the west into this afternoon. A cooler airmass will settle into the region behind the front with highs today only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... An embedded mid level short wave moving through the broader trough will help push a secondary cold front east across the Ohio Valley through the day on Friday. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this secondary front will allow for developing WAA with highs on Friday ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the mid 80s southeast. As dewpoints increase into the low to mid 60s, some decent instabilities will develop through the afternoon across mainly the southeast half of our area. This will lead to and increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms across mainly our southeast late in the day. With increasing shear profiles, a few strong to severe storms will be possible for areas along and south of the Ohio River up into portions of south central Ohio. The main severe threat would be damaging winds. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A ridge will lay out sw-ne across the CWA to begin the forecast, with showers developing on the southeast side of it overnight, generally se of the I-71 corridor. This ridge will slowly move east on Saturday, with some lingering showers in the morning ending before noon. A l/w trough in the mid section of the country will approach Sat/Sat night, but there should not be any precip noted with this as a large sfc high builds in behind the earlier ridge. The axis of the l/w trough is over the CWA Sun evening, and nw flow behind it with a strengthening surface low pressure center will bring a shot of cold air to the region with high temperatures near 70 degrees expected from Sat through Mon, and overnight lows in the mid-upper 40s, some lower 40s on Sun night. Surface high centered over CWA on Mon will track ne but keep a ridge over the Appalachians through the remainder of the forecast. Heights begin to rise on Tuesday, and highs in the mid-upper 70s will warm and stay relatively unchanged for Wed-Thu near 80 or in the low 80s. After Saturday morning, dry and cooler weather will be the rule for the region. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and embedded thunderstorms will overspread the TAF sites through the pre dawn hours ahead of an approaching cold front. As the front moves through, cigs will fall into MVFR to locally IFR, Scattered showers and MVFR to local IFR vsbys will also linger through the morning hours. Pcpn will then taper off heading into the afternoon with VFR conditions developing. OUTLOOK...MVFR visibilities are possible Friday night with another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...JGL