Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
400 FXUS61 KILN 070557 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 157 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms can be expected today ahead of a cold front that moves through the Ohio Valley tonight. Cooler conditions arrive behind the front for the middle and end of the week as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Broad southwesterly H5 flow to persist today ahead of mean trof which settles into the Great Lakes tonight. H8 30-35 KT low level jet offers favorable moisture transport as it pivot thru the area this morning into early aftn. PWATs increase to between 1.6 and 1.8 inches. Widespread rain to persist across the area today into tonight ahead of a surface cold front that slips into west central Ohio late in the day. Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected with the potential for local amounts over 2 inches. Antecedent conditions are starting out rather dry but heavy rain in pockets could lead to localized flooding. Will continue to mention this heavy rain threat in the HWO. Instability will be marginal with forecast sounding profiles showing "skinny CAPE". Embedded thunder will be possible in the widespread rain will ahead of the cold front. High temperatures generally in the lower and middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... As the surface cold front begins to enter the northwest late in the day, showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected into the evening hours along the front. Rainfall chances end from the northwest - finally clearing southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky after midnight with the front continuing to drop south of the area. Clouds begin to clear from the northwest late tonight. Lows tonight range from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. MEan longwave H5 trof shifts east of the area with northwest flow developing. Expansive surface high pressure of Canadian origin to build across the Great Lakes Wednesday. Light northerly wind becomes northeast with Wednesday afternoon wind gusts up to 20 mph possible. Cooler temperatures with highs from the lower 60s northwest to near 70 southeast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... On Wednesday evening, a large area of surface high pressure will be centered near Sault Ste Marie, with a dry air mass associated with the high extending southward through much of the Ohio Valley. The cool and dry conditions will be favorable for radiational cooling, and min temps Wednesday night / Thursday morning are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Some patchy frost will be possible in outlying areas, particularly for the northern sections of the forecast area. Conditions on Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60s, and northeasterly flow. As the surface high shifts further to the east, a return to southerly flow is expected by Friday, which will begin a slight warming trend heading into the weekend. The upper level pattern will become a bit more complicated from Friday onward. A weak shortwave and cold front are expected to move southeast into the Great Lakes on Friday, but these features are expected to dissipate before reaching the Ohio Valley. After this, a closed low may develop somewhere over the southeastern states, with ridging from the deep south into the Great Lakes. The ILN CWA will be more influenced by the ridging, with high pressure and dry air leading to another period of tranquil weather. Temperatures will rise through the weekend, reaching the mid 70s by Monday, but precipitation will be kept out of the forecast. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to overspread the area today ahead of a cold front that moves across the TAF sites this evening. Ceilings to drop thru MVFR with widespread IFR ceilings expected thru the day. In addition, we will see periods of IFR visibility restrictions during the steadiest precipitation. Can`t rule out some embedded thunder at times. After a brief pause this afternoon, a cold front will drop southeast through the terminals this evening. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected, along with a wind shift to the northwest and north behind the front. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Hatzos AVIATION...AR