Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
083 FXUS61 KILN 031106 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 606 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region through today before a cold front moves through tonight into early Thursday morning. This front will bring the chance for additional light snow early Thursday morning, with minor accumulations possible. Temperatures will remain below normal through this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... An expansive cloud deck remains draped across the region, which will limit how cold it gets through daybreak just a bit. However, temps should still bottom out in the lower 20s, with some upper teens possible in parts of EC IN and WC OH. As we progress into the daytime, the cloud cover should persist into early afternoon before scattering out, with some late day sunshine expected for most spots. This being said, some mid clouds will already be overspreading from the W late afternoon into early evening, so the window for sunshine may only be a few hours for some spots. Nevertheless, highs will top out in the lower to mid 30s, with some upper 30s possible in N KY as SW sfc flow becomes established. Sfc high pressure centered across the TN Vly will drift E through the daytime, allowing for SW LL flow to increase to around 10kts across the area during the daytime. Clouds will increase from the W/NW into this evening with the approach of a cold front. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A cold front will progress from NW to SE through the local area past midnight through daybreak tonight as mid level energy within the base of a larger trough over centered over southern Canada moves quickly E across the Great Lakes region. Although moisture availability/depth will remain rather limited, there should be just enough lift and moisture within the DGZ to allow for a band of light SN to develop and drift to the SE through the ILN FA between about 04z-14z. The latest guidance suggests that SLRs will be on the order of 12-15:1, so it will not take much liquid-equivalent to generate an inch of snow. There is certainly some concern that this band of light snow may cause issues for the Thursday AM commute as the combo of subfreezing ground temps, slightly higher-than-normal SLRs, and timing could create problems for untreated surfaces early Thursday morning. The ground is going to be very receptive to accumulation and the timing of this light snow should be progressing through at least the Cincy metro area and N KY during the AM commute (snow may end several hours quicker further N across Dayton and Columbus metro areas). These types of situations always present a messaging challenge because although the amounts should stay below advisory criteria, the impacts of difficult travel conditions may very well warrant an advisory. At this juncture, there is still enough uncertainty and variability in the guidance regarding where the steadiest band of snow is going to set up, so did not have confidence to hoist any advisory quite yet. But will maintain mention in the HWO and issue a SPS to highlight the potential for a snowy Thursday AM commute and raise awareness of possible slick conditions. CAA will evolve in the post-frontal environment into early Thursday morning, allowing for temps to dip into the lower to mid 20s in EC IN and WC OH during the predawn hours. However, temps should generally stay around 30 degrees through sunrise ahead of the front for parts of N KY and the lower Scioto Valley. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Very cold conditions are in store for Thursday night when surface high pressure moves over the area. Radiational cooling over a fresh snowpack should allow lows to drop into single digits for areas north of the Ohio River. Teens are forecast along and south of the river. Cold and dry conditions likely continue through at least Saturday when the next cold front pushes through the Ohio Valley. Low end chances for precipitation return for the second half weekend with northwesterly upper level flow in place but there is still no clear signal for the next weather maker. Below average temperatures persist. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A blanket of borderline MVFR/IFR CIGs remain draped across the region, with the potential for brief IFR CIGs just about anywhere (lowest chance for KCMH/KLCK) through mid-morning. The CIGs should remain in place into early afternoon before scattering out quickly after 18z, even as some mid clouds begin to overspread from the NW late in the day. A cold front will move into the area, impacting the terminals between 06z-12z with a wind shift, as well as a band of light SN. This band of SN may be most developed/widespread for wrn sites of KCVG/KLUK/KDAY/KILN between 06z-10z, but certainly some brief IFR conditions will be possible with this feature. MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected by 12z Thursday. Light westerly winds around 5kts will go more out of the SW by daybreak, increasing to around 10kts by 18z. SW winds will persist until the FROPA, which should occur progressively from about 06z at KDAY to around 12z at KCVG, and bring with it a shift to NW winds around 8-10kts by the end of the period. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are possible Saturday into Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...