045
FXUS61 KILN 232357
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
657 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through the remainder
of the weekend. Showers will occur ahead of a cold front that
will move through late Monday into Monday night. High pressure
will build in behind the front with the next chance of
precipitation coming Wednesday night into Thanksgiving as a low
passes south of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Moisture trapped under an inversion will keep low clouds across
the region through the night. Temperatures will not drop much
with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
It appears that low clouds will finally erode from southwest to
northeast on Sunday once the low level ridge axis moves east and
warm air advection can occur. Temperatures will pop back up into
the 50s in the afternoon.

Pressure gradient will increase heading into Sunday night as a
cold front starts to approach. Clouds will increase once again
late Sunday night as that system starts to get closer. But there
will be a window late in the day into the evening for
relatively low cloud cover and that will let temperatures drop
off, especially in eastern counties where winds will be lighter.
Lows will range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rain is expected Monday when Great Lakes low pressure drags a cold
front across the Ohio Valley. Dry weather is likely on Tuesday as
high pressure moves in. Potent low pressure tracking from the
southwest is forecast to bring rain beginning late Wednesday and
continuing through Thanksgiving Day. Temperature profiles suggest
that snow will be possible along and north of I-70. Snow chances
spread farther south on Friday as colder air filter in behind the
low. Dry weather will be possible on Saturday thanks to high
pressure centered to the south.

A mild day is predicted for Monday ahead of the cold front, with
highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Much cooler readings then take
over, with highs within a few degrees of 40 Tuesday through Friday,
followed by 30s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR stratocumulus will lower into IFR across much of the
region this evening and then persist into Sunday morning. Some
areas of MVFR br will also be possible later tonight into early
Sunday. Cigs will begin to improve from the southwest later
Sunday morning and into early afternoon as the low levels begin
to dry out. VFR conditions will then prevail through the tail
end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are likely Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning. IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities will be
possible Monday afternoon and evening. MVFR to IFR ceilings and
visibilities will be possible again Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...JGL