957
FXUS61 KILN 161033
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
633 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity continue through the week, with occasional
chances for storms through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

A mid level closed high remains in place across the southeastern
states. For Wednesday and Thursday, the warm sector associated with
this high will be characterized by dewpoints reaching the lower 70s
and high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s. This could support
heat indices reaching advisory criteria (heat index of 100 or
greater) for the southern sections of the ILN CWA. However,
confidence remains low because of the potential for increasing clouds
(and maybe even convection) which could keep temperatures a little
below the current forecast.

The convective forecast through the next few days remains similar to
previous forecasts. A generally east-to-west frontal zone will be
focused just north of the ILN CWA through the next couple days,
though it may oscillate somewhat northward or southward from time to
time. Given the placement of this front, convective chances Wednesday
and Thursday appear like they will be focused in the northern
sections of the ILN CWA, at least initially. Storms will have the
potential to propagate southward into the warmer air, but if they do,
they will become more displaced from the forcing and the greater
mid-level wind flow. Overall, with marginal shear and narrow CAPE
profiles, severe weather appears unlikely. A few strong to possibly
severe storms could occur, but an organized threat appears unlikely.
The greater threat will likely be for heavy rain, as precipitable
water values will be around 2 inches or even slightly greater. The
east-west boundary will also support the potential for several rounds
of storms over repeated locations. WPC has included much of the
forecast area in a MRGL risk of excessive rainfall for both Wednesday
and Thursday.

As the ridge breaks down on Friday, the frontal zone will shift
farther south into the Ohio Valley -- lowering max temps, but
increasing precipitation chances. Forecast confidence becomes lower
in any specifics from Friday onward, but with additional shortwave
energy developing upstream, some chances for showers and storms will
likely continue into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period,
scattered showers and thunderstorms have continued to develop early
this morning. Some brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible where
storms hit.

Additional showers and storms are expected at times this afternoon,
though as of now, confidence remains fairly low that they will impact
any specific TAF site. SHRA/TSRA may need to be added into the TAFs
once confidence increases.

Otherwise, WSW winds are expected today, at or below 10 knots. Light
and variable winds are expected tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hatzos