372
FXUS61 KILN 052343
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
643 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A system moving through the region tonight and early Thursday
will bring a mix of precipitation and the potential for icy
surfaces early tonight. Then, dry conditions are expected for
later Thursday morning through Friday. Another system bringing
mixed precipitation will affect the region starting late Friday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad isentropic lift with pockets of upward motion/weak
instability will see areas of showers push into the CWA from the
west. These wsw-ene bands look to be forming in areas of low
level convergence that are topped by mid level vorticity maxima.
Given the continued mean and deep westerly flow, it will be
difficult to pin down specific locations and/or timing for these
showers to initiate this afternoon and evening. By this evening,
rain is expected to have overspread the southern CWA with a
relatively sharp s-n cutoff near the I-70 corridor.
Thunderstorms within this area are possible as discrete cells
could be strong enough to force a charge separation. By later
this evening, rain on the northern edge of these showers will
spread north to cover the remainder of the CWA. The main fly in
the ointment with this system is surface temperatures and
potential of freezing rain from onset to a little after
midnight. Temperatures will be waffling this evening for most
of the CWA between 30-34 degrees, warmer south of a Cincinnati-
Chillicothe line. Not too long after midnight, temperatures
will be warming over the entire CWA, removing the threat for any
icy accumulations. This will occur last to the north of the I-70
corridor where the threat of freezing rain or a mix of rain and
freezing rain exists the longest with temperatures within a
degree of the freezing mark, lagging an hour or two behind the
warmup expected elsewhere over the CWA.

Lows will occur early on this evening and linger there for
several hours. The warm front lifting across the region will
bring temperatures at daybreak to the upper 30s in the north,
low to mid 40s for much of the CWA, and lower 50s south of the
Ohio River.

Did not change any timing or placement with the winter weather
advisory currently in effect. Too much uncertainty exists to
push temperatures more than a degree up or down which does not
make any reasonable further delineation of the sensible weather
in our area. Start time of precip also has some uncertainty.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Southwest winds gusting to 20-25 mph will help push
temperatures up about 5-8 deg from morning lows on Thursday
under cloudy skies. Readings will range from the mid 40s in the
north, near or in the low 50s along the I-71 corridor, and low
60s over northern Kentucky and far south central Ohio. Lingering
daybreak/early morning showers in northern Kentucky and far
southern Ohio will end by late morning. Some few breaks in cloud
cover should occur later in the afternoon, particularly to the
north and west of metro Dayton, possibly running through
Wilmington and Columbus before evening.

Skies will decrease in the evening from west to east, with
partly cloudy conditions expected by daybreak. Winds will
continue to be westerly, and temperatures will lower to the mid
20s in the north to around 30 in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Persistent midlevel zonal flow will evolve for the start of the
long term period, providing a path for several weak embedded
disturbances to ripple to the E swiftly through the mid MO/OH
Vlys, one after the other. These quick-moving systems will allow
the LL baroclinic boundary to oscillate about the region N to
S, and back N again, several times through the long term period,
spelling an active pattern for us locally.

A brief stretch of quiet weather is expected for the final day
of the workweek as sfc high pressure briefly builds into the
region with seasonably chilly temps on tap amidst a mix of sun
and clouds. By Friday night into Saturday, the first of the
aforementioned quick-hitting systems will translate E through
the region, doing its best to once again erode an antecedent LL
wedge of cold air before pcpn overspreads from the SW. The
system late Friday night through Saturday doesn`t appear all too
different from the system impacting the area tonight, although
with the low track slightly further to the N/W, the overall
profile for Saturday should be a tad warmer, suggesting that the
potential for FZRA or mixed wintry pcpn should be more limited
in nature. Additionally, with most of the pcpn likely arriving
after daybreak Saturday, the daytime insolation should help
limit impacts even if there is some patchy FZRA near the onset.
But most spots should receive mainly rain -- perhaps another
quarter to half of an inch for many locales.

CAA on the backside of the departing system Saturday night into
Sunday will bring temps back closer to seasonal norms once
again as the baroclinic boundary again oscillates back to our S
by Sunday/Monday.

Zonal flow persists as we progress into next week with an
active storm track continuing right through the ern third of the
CONUS. The latitudinal positioning of the boundary will
ultimately dictate what types of pcpn and what impacts may be
felt from a parade of disturbances within the Mon-Wed time
frame. It seems probable, even at this juncture, that additional
wintry pcpn will impact at least parts of the region once again
during this several day stretch, but details regarding ptypes
and amounts remain far from certain at this stage. The details
of what may unfold may still not come into focus until late this
week, but there are high probabilities for a wet (or
potentially wintry) pattern to develop toward the end of the
long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Freezing rain will be the main aviation impact for the next few
hours, along with MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities. CVG/LUK
will remain generally above freezing, though some very light
icing impacts are possible at KCVG for a few hours.
ILN/DAY/CMH/LCK will likely see longer periods of freezing rain
occur.

Once the freezing rain ends after 06Z, additional concerns will
be a period of LIFR ceilings, and some LLWS. Both have been
included for a few hours in each of the TAFs.

Precipitation will end in the 11Z-12Z time frame, but some MVFR
visibilities may persist, along with MVFR to possibly IFR
ceilings. Very late in the day, ceilings should scatter out to
VFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are expected Saturday through
Sunday morning. Gusty winds are possible on Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EST Thursday for OHZ060>064-
     070>074.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-065.
KY...None.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EST Thursday for INZ050-058-
     059-066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Hatzos