460
FXUS61 KILN 021139
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
639 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor adjustments continue to be made for the snowfall expected
Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another bitter morning with some very light snow possible today.

2) Accumulating snow across southeast Indiana, southern Ohio, and
northern Kentucky Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

3) Clipper moving across the area Thursday and Friday. Bitterly cold
temperatures return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1) Another bitter morning with some very light snow
possible today.

As clouds slowly creep in from the west this morning, areas that
remained clear most of the night have seen temperatures drop in the
single digits to below zero. Meanwhile, areas that saw temperatures
drop early in the overnight are now beginning to see temperatures
rebound with the clouds moving in. The weak system approaching the
area provides southwesterly flow, which will help temperatures
rise a bit more today, however, still expecting the majority of the
area to remain below freezing.

A stretched out shortwave moves across the area today, with a north
to south aligned band of light snow occurring as it does so. Across
the southern portions of the area (a line from Richmond, IN ->
Wilmington, OH -> Chillicothe, OH and south), moisture is bit
lackluster into the DGZ and lift is weaker compared to the north.
Therefore have focused the highest PoPs across northern portions of
the area, along with the light accumulations up to a half inch. As
the main band moves away during the late afternoon and early evening,
moisture into the DGZ decreases. Weak lift may support a period of
freezing drizzle for a couple of hours. Opted to not include a
mention in the forecast at this time given the low potential, but it
will be something to watch for as the day progresses.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Accumulating snow across southeast Indiana, southern
Ohio, and northern Kentucky Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

Much of the guidance is now in fairly good agreement that a locally
enhanced snowfall event is probable across a portion of the area
starting late Tuesday morning, ending during the evening hours. NBM
probabilities are now 30-50% for 3" or greater, primarily from
eastern/southeast Indiana into southwest/southern Ohio and northern
Kentucky. As a result, accumulations were increased across this area
with 2-3" of snow now forecast. Chances remain much less to the north
from Dayton to Columbus, but some minor accumulations up to an inch
are advertised.

Confidence has increased with the snowfall accumulations, however,
the forecast remains very sensitive to the mesoscale banding that is
expected to develop late Tuesday morning. As the shortwave moves into
the lower Ohio Valley, lift through frontogenesis increases locally.
This means that instead of seeing the snow band move into the
area from Iowa/Illinois, the band of snow may visually develop and
expand primarily over the Wilmington and Indianapolis CWAs. Forecast
soundings show some of the best forcing within the DGZ, favoring
efficient snowfall rates where the bands develop. While likely
localized to where the best banding forms, warning criteria snow (4"
in these locations) is on the table given the unique scenario over
the local area. No headline decisions planned for this shift, but
will continue to message the potential in the HWO. Additional
confidence with another set of CAM guidance will help drive headline
decisions in future shifts. Confidence in where the highest snow may
fall likely will not occur until the banding develops Tuesday
morning.

Snow pulls away to the southeast during the evening hours with
temperatures dropping into the lower 20s and teens through Tuesday
night and into Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Clipper moving across the area Thursday and Friday.
Bitterly cold temperatures return for the weekend.

The Thursday night/Friday system is still expected, but guidance
continues to waffle around the exact position of the surface low and
better upper level forcing. Trends overall have been for the system
to be a little farther to the northeast of the region, reducing
probabilities for snowfall accumulations. With the latest NBM,
chances for 3" of snow or more are highest across the Columbus area,
but they have dropped from 30% to around 10% over the last few cycles
of the NBM.

Even if the snow does not come to fruition, the next blast of
bitterly cold temperatures is of higher confidence. While brief,
temperatures in the single digits along with wind chills below zero
are once again likely. It is nearly a week away, but it does appear
as though temperatures may quickly rebound into the following work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR restrictions spread across the area from west to east this
morning, with some potential for light snow as well. This light snow
may reduce visibility, but is not expected to last long as it quickly
moves through. Some lingering flurries or light snow showers are
expected toward 00Z Tuesday, with the highest confidence for
DAY/CMH/LCK. Some IFR CIGs are also possible for these areas later
this evening.

Generally expecting MVFR restrictions to continue through the end of
the TAF period, as the next system approaches around 12Z Tuesday.
Have included mentions of prevailing light snow for CVG with some
potential for lower visibility.

Winds are light and out of the south or southeast this morning before
becoming predominately south to southwesterly by 15-16Z. Later this
evening, winds will turn more westerly, gradually weakening by the
end of the TAF.


OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue into Tuesday
night. MVFR to IFR visibilities are possible Tuesday with snow. MVFR
CIGs linger into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McGinnis
AVIATION...McGinnis