000
FXUS61 KILN 101814
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
214 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected into tonight,
with some risk for heavy rainfall.

2) Another chance for showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A mid level short wave will move east across the mid Ohio Valley
tonight as a frontal boundary sags slowly south across the region.
The airmass across our area has begun to slowly recover with MLCapes
now back up to around 1000 J/KG. This will allow for showers and
some embedded thunderstorms to overspread our area through the rest
of the afternoon and into this evening. Will likely see some
additional showers then linger through much of the night across
mainly our southeast as the boundary continues to push slowly south.


The overall severe threat will be limited by the marginal
instability, but increasing mid level flow through late afternoon
could allow for a few stronger to possibly severe storms if we are
able to destabilize a bit more. The main threat would be gusty winds
into early this evening.

PWs ahead of the front will remain in excess of 2 inches tonight.
Thus, locally heavy rainfall will remain possible along with
the potential for flooding in areas where storms are able to train.
The best chance for this appears to be across southeast portions of
our area into tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
The frontal boundary will push slowly south on Friday before lifting
back to the north on Saturday ahead of an approaching mid level
short wave. This will lead to another chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the first half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will move east across the region
this afternoon into this evening as a frontal boundary pushes slowly
south across our area through tonight. Some of the models are
suggesting the potential for some low cloud/fog development on the
backside of the pcpn later tonight into Friday morning. As a result,
will include some MVFR to IFR conditions later tonight/Friday morning.
Cigs and vsbys will gradually improve through late morning with VFR
conditions returning through Friday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Additional thunderstorms possible on Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL