098
FXUS61 KILN 111018
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
618 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a Heat Advisory for our far north today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm and humid conditions are expected again today. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Additional
showers and thunderstorms can be expected again late this evening
and into the overnight hours.


2) A drier and somewhat cooler airmass will move in behind the cold
front for Friday afternoon and into Saturday. A secondary cold front
will bring additional showers and thunderstorms on Sunday along with
cooler temperatures for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Widespread showers and thunderstorms off to our west early this
morning are forecast to gradually dissipate as they move east into
our western areas through the pre-dawn hours. An outflow boundary is
evident on radar out ahead of the initial areas of storms moving
through northwest Indiana so this should help those dissipate. Will
have to see how things transition though with the stronger convection
back across central Illinois attm. The airmass to the south of the
outflow boundary remains more unstable so this activity may linger a
bit longer with its eastward push. Overall though, any severe threat
should be low with any storms that are able to make it into our
western areas through daybreak. The biggest threat will likely just
be some gusty winds with any remnant outflow boundaries.

It looks like we will have another day with borderline Heat Advisory
conditions. There is some of uncertainty though as we head through
late morning with lingering clouds from the current MCS and what
effect that will have on temperatures. Another concern is that most
of the hi-res models are suggesting isolated to scattered
thunderstorms redeveloping later this morning and into this
afternoon, and then what effect those could have on temperatures.
Will go ahead and continue with highs mostly in the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees. This will result in heat indices in the 95 to 100
degree range. Will match up with neighboring office with a Heat
Advisory across our far north for today, but handle the rest of the
area with an SPS given some of the uncertainties.

Any daytime diurnally enhanced thunderstorms will dissipate heading
into this evening. However, widespread thunderstorms will progress
southeast into our area later tonight ahead of an approaching cold
front. Some better deep layer shear will work in from the northwest
overnight and this may allow for these storms to maintain their
intensity more before they begin to weaken later tonight as they
move southeast across our area. As a result, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible tonight, especially across our northwestern
areas. Damaging wind would be the primary concern.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
The cold front should be just about east of our area by Friday
morning so expect any lingering showers and storms across our
southeast to taper off through the morning hours. A drier and
somewhat cooler airmass will then settle into the area through Friday
afternoon and continue into the day on Saturday.

A mid level short wave will move east across the Ohio Valley during
the day on Sunday, helping to push a secondary cold front through
our area. This will lead to fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday night and into the day on Sunday. It
will also usher in a cooler airmass for the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weakening area of showers and thunderstorms pushing east-southeast
across southern Indiana should continue to weaken over the next few
hours. However, they may hold together long enough to affect
KCVG/KLUK for the first hour or so of the TAF period so will include
a prob30 to cover the threat.

Otherwise, diurnally enhanced isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will redevelop across the area through the afternoon hours. Any
activity should taper off heading into this evening. However, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms will drop southeast across the
region later tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.

Generally expect VFR conditions to prevail outside of any showers or
storms.

OUTLOOK... Thunderstorms possible Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-
     034-035.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL