285
FXUS61 KILN 250934
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
434 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west and cross the area
this evening bringing rain to the area. High pressure will then
build in behind the front offering dry weather Tuesday into
early Wednesday.  A storm system passing south of the region
Wednesday night into Thursday will bring the next round of
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level ridge to slide east to the east with flow the flow
backing southwesterly ahead of a trof developing into the
Plains. Surface low develops ahead of the progressive mid
level trof and tracks thru the Great Lakes today and tonight.
Associated southward trailing cold front to push thru the area
this evening.

Moisture increases with clouds thickening up and lowering
with a few light rain showers in the WAA region where
isentropic lift develops this morning.

Better coverage of rain will occur later this afternoon into
the early evening ahead of the cold front. Forcing improves
over the east where better QPF is expected. Rainfall is expected
to range from 0.10-0.20 in the west to 0.20-0.30 in the east.

High temperatures to range from 55 in the northwest to around
60s southeast. Southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph will gust to 20
to 25 mph at times.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level shortwave to pivot east thru the Great Lakes with a
surface cold front to pass east of the area by late evening.
Rainfall will end with the passage of the front.

Mid level flow becomes westerly with surface high pressure
starting to build in late tonight. Clouds will begin to erode
from the west toward daybreak Tuesday. Lows to range from the
lower 30s west to near 40 east.

Surface high pressure to offer abundant sunshine Tuesday with
some mid and high level clouds spilling in later in the day.
Highs to range near 40 northwest to 50 southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cool high pressure builds over the region Tuesday night, then
slowly pushes east of the area Wednesday.

A lower latitude disturbance moving from the southern Plains into
the Kentucky Valley will bring precipitation late Wednesday. Looking
at the ensembles, there is still much disagreement in the eventual
path of this Wednesday night/Thursday surface low. The EPS has come
into better agreement amongst its members on a surface low moving up
the Ohio or Kentucky Valley Wednesday night, leading to rain across
our southern counties with accumulating snow across the north.
However, the GEFS remains weaker and further south, with very little
snowfall associated with this system. Have nudged up snowfall in the
grids north of I-70 out of respect for a potential ECMWF/NAM
scenario. Will save an HWO mention for a bit more confidence in the
stronger/colder solution.

The longwave pattern will begin to change behind this system late
week. A trough will dig across the eastern United States while
ridging builds out West. It appears some weak, reinforcing shortwave
energy will dive southeast through the Great Lakes on both Thursday
night and also possibly Sunday night. This will produce a chance for
periodic light snow. Temperatures will be cold through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level ridge to slide east across the area overnight with the
flow backing southwesterly ahead of a trof developing into the
Plains. Surface low develops ahead of the progressive mid level
trof and tracks thru the Great Lakes today and tonight. Associated
southward trailing cold front to push thru the area tonight.

Pressure gradient will increase this morning as the cold front
starts to approach. Moisture increases with clouds thickening up
and lowering to MVFR early this morning. A weakening low level
jet may lead to some LLWS overnight into early morning, mainly
at the southern TAF sites.

Pcpn will then develop through the afternoon and continue into
this evening as the cold front moves into the region. MVFR to
ceilings drop to IFR with MVFR to locally IFR vsbys possible at
times with the pcpn into this evening. Gusty southerly winds
at 10-12 knots will swing around to the west and northwest as
the front moves through this evening.


OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings will occur into Tuesday
morning with some MVFR visibilities possible as well. MVFR to
IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible again Wednesday
night into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR