Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
066 FXUS61 KILN 041034 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 634 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure in the eastern Great Lakes region will keep a dry east wind over much of the Ohio Valley through the early part of the forecast. An nearly stationary upper trough situated in the Midwest will see some energy lift northeast into the region through Tuesday and then slowly meander towards Ohio on Wednesday. Scattered to isolated shower activity along with some thunderstorms are possible through most of this week as the upper trough meanders towards our area, stalls, and experiences a slow but constant weakening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A stationary upper trough oriented n-s over the Midwest will weaken through the day today. Shortwave energy rounding the eastern side of the trough axis will be found along the IL/IN border this afternoon, with some weak lobes of vorticity nosing northward through the CWA. Models are pooling moisture over IN/KY, and daytime heating will create scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms in this portion of the CWA. NBM forecast has low chances of rain over nrn KY west of Maysville, and over all of our IN counties, with a rapid decrease in sw OH. I would expect any activity over CWA to occur w of I-75 corridor in KY and barely make it as far n as I-74 in se IN. And the caveat here is if precip actually develops. There are more indicators for a dry day in these areas than not and I feel that our rain forecast is overdone. Again. Highs in the lower 80s will be found with dewpoints in the lower 60s for much of the CWA. A little drier in central OH with upper 50s Td and some mid to possibly upper 60s in very far sw CWA where any real precip chance should lie this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... The upper trough axis remains west of the CWA, with some weak energy lifting ne ahead of it into swrn CWA. Some showers and storms could be lingering into the overnight hours but should be very isolated in nature. Lows will be in the lower 60s, with readings in the mid 60s along and s of the Ohio. Tues will see a similar scenario as today with highs in the lower 80s. The upper trough makes the slightest tick eastward towards the IL/IN border but continues to weaken through this time. Some few parameters favoring showers persist through the early morning in the sw and then daytime insolation kicks in for the afternoon. Marginally better shower/tstm chances exist in the sw 1/2 of CWA, maximized sw of Cincy metro area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak mid level trough will progress east across the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Some weak instability will develop through the day and this may be enough to produce a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon into early evening. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Weak mid level ridging will then build into the Ohio Valley through the end of the workweek before beginning to shift off to the east through the weekend. This will result in a gradual warming trend with daytime highs back into the mid to upper 80s by the second half of the long term period. It will also be tough to rule out a few diurnally enhanced showers or thunderstorms each day, but pcpn chances appear low enough at this point to maintain a mainly dry forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Under increasing cirrus today, stratocu deck around 8kft will occur at CVG/LUK and to a lesser extent, ILN. Some fair wx cu will occur n/ne of the edge of the sc in sw OH, with DAY and possibly ILN finding some few/sct fair wx cu underneath the prevailing cirrus cloud deck. Only high clouds are expected in central OH and CMH/LCK for the next 24 hours, though some of the lower cu could enter late tomorrow night. Weak indications of some shower activity are still noted in the southwest, but are too weak and further sw than CVG/LUK for including in the forecast. Isold coverage if it develops would be best handled with an amendment if development looks to take aim on any one terminal. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Franks