Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
277 FXUS61 KILN 211754 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 154 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Flood Watch issued for this afternoon and evening across our southeast. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1) Thunderstorms are expected through early evening, with severe storms possible, as well as potential for flooding. Key Message 2) Drier and cooler conditions expected through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1) First round of storms have generally pushed through the region, with increasing coverage of storms especially in the Tri State and central Ohio areas at this time. This round has much with greater potential for strong/severe storms largely through 22-00z. Keeping an eye on singular/discrete cells and potential for rotation/a tornado or 2 is possible. Damaging winds remain the main threat though. Flood watch was expanded just slightly north as PW values at/just above 2" are yielding very efficient heavy rain in the thunderstorms this morning. While overall storms should be progressive, repeated storms over the same area has prompted the slightly expanded Flood Watch. Regional atmosphere able to destabilize following morning convection ahead of the main shortwave trough over the Great Lakes, with mesoanalysis indicating the potential for SB CAPES recovering to 3000 J/Kg. With the main frontal boundary stretching from NW Ohio into north Central Indiana, the severe threat is diminishing for the far NW quadrant of our CWA. Best chance for convective development/severe storms will be along and ahead of the pre frontal trough - essentially along/south of I70, with the greatest potential in areas near/south of the Ohio River and south central/central Ohio. The main threat with the 50-60kts of bulk shear will be damaging winds, and with 0-1km shear is 20-25kts in this area, a tornado or 2 can`t be ruled out. The main threat for discrete/rotating storms will be in the early part of the storm event, largely before 21z, with the potential for a QLCS continuing through the region - exiting by 00z. Key Message 2) High pressure will build into the region behind the front for mid week. Calmer/drier/cooler weather is expected into the late week. Temperatures will then begin to slowly moderate toward more seasonable values as we head into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... In anticipation of additional convective development, with remaining uncertainty for especially KDAY/KCMH/KLCK, have tweaked potential timing of the thunderstorms slightly earlier, with TEMPO thunderstorms largely from 18-22z, though isolated thunderstorms between 22-00z didn`t warrant a tempo or prob at this time. Gusty winds in excess of 40 knots and very heavy rainfall will be possible with thunderstorms through 22-00z, and as the frontal boundary sinks through the area between 21-02z, winds will shift to NW and gust to near 25kts and then diminish shortly after FROPA. Drier air moving in behind the front will also lead to a decreasing cloud trend overnight into Wednesday. Expecting possible MVFR to even IFR at KLUK. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ073-074-077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ089>100. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDR AVIATION...JDR