964
FXUS61 KILN 301801
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
201 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances increase tonight and Thursday as a cold front
moves through the area. High pressure of Canadian origin will bring
drier and cooler conditions for the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shortwave over the Upper Midwest will begin to trek across the Great
Lakes states tonight. This will tend to flatten the persistent mid-
level ridge across the southern United States. Convectively induced cold
pool triggered by the wave will shift east across our northern areas
(north of I-70) late this evening into the overnight hours. Guidance
continues to suggest the leading showers and storms ahead of the
cold pool will weaken as they outrun the best instability and
forcing. Will maintain chance of PoPs across our west-central Ohio
counties due to the uncertainty in how quickly the storms weaken.
Temperatures tonight will continue to be warm and muggy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front associated with the digging shortwave will pass through
most of our CWA on Thursday, with a surface wave bringing an
increase in showers and storms behind the front. With the better wind
profiles staying to our north, expecting storms to remain below
severe thresholds... though can`t rule out heavy rain and localized
flooding based on the pool of deeper moisture following the front.

Decrease in showers along with falling dewpoints will occur Thursday
night as surface high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes region. Lows will fall into the 60s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday begins the first full day of a pattern change in the mid Ohio
Valley, with the frontal boundary sagging southward, beginning near
the Ohio River. Scattered to isolated showers in/near the frontal
boundary, diminishing and pulling southward through the day.
Unseasonably cool, with highs in the upper 70s north to lower 80s in
the vicinity of the frontal boundary near/south of the Ohio River,
and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.

With cold air advection and surface high pressure building over the
region, Saturday`s highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s with welcome
dewpoints in the 50s. Return flow begins on Sunday as the high
pushes east, with slightly higher temps/dewpoints. Some possibility
of a return to showers in the far south on Sunday, but confidence is
pretty low that that activity would reach north of the Tennessee
Valley. Most likely the increasing chances would of showers/embedded
thunderstorms would be Monday onward, with the approach of a mid
level trough and associated shortwave approaching from the central
plains. Temperatures slowly return to more seasonable values of low-
mid 80s for highs and mid 60s for lows by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patchy fog is likely to develop again tonight as surface dewpoints
remain in the lower 70s while thick clouds and rain hold off to the
west. Increasing threat of showers and storms will occur starting
Thursday morning along and just behind a southward-advancing cold
front. Tried to time this out in the TAFs, with a southeastward
progression occurring during the day. Winds will generally be out of
the north or northeast. Could see MVFR ceilings in the morning,
possibly continuing as the showers and storms pass through.


OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Thursday night into Friday
morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070>073-077>082-
     088.
     Air Quality Alert until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ046-055-056-
     065.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...