Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
532 FXUS61 KILN 161059 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 559 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and a drier, cooler airmass will settle into the region today and Monday. A chance for precipitation will return for Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level disturbance moves through the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The cold front and associated showers have pushed south of our area early this morning. Drier air will continue to move in behind the front with mostly sunny skies expected today. In the CAA pattern, winds will remain brisk with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range through this afternoon. Temperatures will not rebound all that much today with afternoon readings ranging from the upper 40s north to the low/mid 50s south. With drier air moving in, RHs may drop as low as the 25-35 percent range this afternoon. This combined with the gusty winds could lead to an enhanced fire danger so will go ahead and add a mention to the HWO. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... An elongated surface high pressure stretching from central Canada down into the mid Mississippi Valley will shift slowly east toward our area tonight into Friday. This will lead to continued dry/mostly clear and cool conditions. Lows tonight will dip into the 25 to 30 degree range with highs on Monday in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A shortwave disturbance to our west will open up and weaken as it travels toward the Tennessee Valley region, overspreading the region precipitation on the north side of a lifting warm front. Arrival of precip (Monday overnight into Tuesday) indicates that there could be a brief period of rain snow mix in central Ohio, however, thermal profiles indicate quite a warm nose aloft and surface temperatures right around freezing in this region, so might hedge slightly more toward and all liquid solution. Outside of central Ohio, Monday night lows fall to the upper 30s. Precip continues into Tuesday, primarily focused along the Ohio River region and temperatures range from the mid 40s along I-70 to low 50s along the Ohio River. Forecast soundings continue to show weak elevated instability, so have maintained thunder in the grids, particularly for Tuesday afternoon/evening. Widespread precipitation chances decrease Tuesday night into Wednesday, though a lingering stalled boundary draped somewhere along Kentucky/Ohio may result in sporadic shower activity. Aloft, quasi-zonal flow sets up over the Ohio Valley region on the northern side of a large ridge, with a deep trough digging in over southwest CONUS. This trough will bring the next major disturbance to the region, with a warm front lifting through sometime on Thursday and trailing cold front moving through on Friday. Obviously, this keeps continued PoPs present in the grids and the extended period remains active. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Northwest winds will continue today in the wake of a cold front that moved through the region Saturday evening. Winds will gust in the 20 to 25 knot range through this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will build into the region from the west tonight into Monday with VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Tuesday afternoon into Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL