304
FXUS61 KILN 220007
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
807 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood and severe threat has diminished

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1) Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
area this evening.

Key Message 2) Drier and cooler conditions expected through the rest
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A cold front that has moved through west central Ohio will continue
southeast across the region through the evening into the early
overnight. A fairly solid line of showers with a bit of embedded
thunder has developed along the front with isolated convection also
occurring well ahead of the boundary. There is still a reasonable
amount of CAPE available, but lapse rates have become rather
unimpressive. So cannot rule out a stronger cell, but overall the
threat is low. Expect all activity to weaken as it gets further into
the diurnal cooling cycle.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
High pressure will build into the region behind the front for mid
week. Calmer/drier/cooler weather is expected into the late week.
Temperatures will then begin to slowly moderate toward more
seasonable values as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered to broken cumulus to start the period will diminish towards
04Z. Some showers could affect KDAY to KCMH/KLCK which may reduce
visibility. As a weak disturbance drops across the area during the
overnight, there is some potential for some clouds around the 2kft
level. This is on the lower confidence end of the spectrum, but there
is enough of a signal in central Ohio to include a least a temporary
ceiling for a few hours. Also, winds may become light enough at KLUK
for some shallow fog to result in visibility reductions. Beyond 13Z,
will only have scattered to broken higher based cumulus. Winds will
shift to west northwest early as the front moves through and then
veer to become more northerly through the rest of the period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDR/35
AVIATION...35