Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
175 FXUS61 KILN 120555 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 155 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms expected Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a cold front. 2) Temperatures will be near normal today will be below normal Wed and Thurs before trending much warmer this weekend. Additional shower/storm activity possible in the warmer weather this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) A cold front ahead of a mid level trough will cross the region tonight and early Wednesday. Ahead of the front, moisture and warmer air on southerly winds will stream in. As the front crosses, this preceding airmass will be lifted and a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected as it passes. Most of the thunder tonight will be scattered as showers move in, but any deep convection will be limited as indicies are not favoring these processes. On Wednesday, the front may lag to keep this activity going in the morning, primarily along and east of the Scioto River Valley. Earlier models were showing some possibility of cold pool showers in central OH, but is not trending this way nor apparent in latest model runs. KEY MESSAGE 2) Temperatures rebound a little bit today with highs in the lower 70s. With the cold frontal passage tonight into early Wednesday, another period of seasonably cool temperatures will ensue with highs in the 60s. Some low 70s will be possible Wed night over nrn KY. Overnight lows should be in the low to mid 40s Wed and Thurs nights. Highs on Friday will trend back to normal, with warmer overnight lows. Sat through Mon will jump 10-15 deg above normal with highs in the mid 80s Sat, upper 80s Sun, and near 90 Mon. A corresponding upward trend in overnight lows will be in the low 60s Sat night, upper 60s Sun night, and mid-upper 60s Mon night. Shower chances increase during this warm period, but models are not in sync but all showing shortwave energy passing through zonal westerly flow aloft and weak ridging Sun. This riding is not expected to be strong enough to prevent s/w activity from sparking shower or thunderstorm activity during this time given additional surface based instability due to diurnal heating and the warm, moist airmass that will be in place. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through today with winds backing to the southwest at around 8kt. High clouds will stream in late in the day, and wind will turn southerly. Overnight, southerly wind will pick up late in the forecast period at 10-15kt and a 15kft ovc deck should be working in, if not prevalent. At CVG, shower activity will begin a the tail end of the forecast, and this may bring in MVFR cigs aoa 2kft. Some thunderstorms will also be found, but indicies are bullish on any deep convection. This should lead to only occasional lighting, primarily cloud-cloud. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible late tonight into early Wednesday in shower activity with a few embedded thunderstorms. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Franks AVIATION...Franks