444
FXUS61 KILN 250221
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1021 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and cool conditions will remain in place through the
weekend. More widespread rain chances will return on Tuesday while
below average temperatures persist through most of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Quiescent night. Mid and high clouds will increase late tonight.
Winds will remain light. Forecast lows look reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A midlevel S/W will track through the region during the short term
period within the broad NW flow aloft, resulting in an increase in
mid/high level moisture through the daytime. While very dry air will
remain entrenched within the LL profile, efforts to saturate the
profile may eventually lead to a few sprinkles or spotty light SHRA
through the daytime. Confidence in this occurring is quite low given
the antecedent depth of dry air near the sfc, but suppose that a
slight chance of light SHRA cannot be ruled out, particularly near/S
of the OH Rvr by mid to late afternoon.

By early evening, a better push of dry air will begin to once again
settle into the area, overspreading from the N through the
night into Monday morning. This should keep the area dry for the
daytime Monday, too.

Temps on Sunday will be a few degrees cooler than will be the case
today, owing to more widespread cloud cover and the patchy sprinkles
or very light SHRA. Highs will generally top out in the mid to upper
60s before bottoming out in the upper 40s to lower 50s into Monday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday will be a transition day as upper level ridging is shunted
east as a digging trough over the Great Plains develops into a
closed low. As such, clouds increase and thicken on Monday and
temperatures become a tad warmer, rising into the low 70s (still 5-
10 degrees below average). However, we should remain dry through
most of the daylight hours.

Precipitation from the low pressure to our west begins to overspread
the region Monday evening. We remain on the northern side of the
surface low and the more robust pool of instability remains well to
our south, so, for now, have excluded thunder from the grids during
this time.

Rain showers continue on Tuesday, with some weak instability
building in during the afternoon hours as the low pushes north and
the warm front moves into the region. Broad brush QPF suggests a
tight precip gradient spanning from lesser amounts (0.25-0.5 in)
along and north of I-70 to higher amounts along the Ohio River and
farther south (0.75 to 1+ inch), with locally higher amounts likely
where heavier pockets of rainfall occur. Foliage throughout the area
has come in by now so this should help with runoff, but cannot rule
out some isolated flooding concerns where storms train. Highs on
Tuesday are cooler thanks to the thick cloud cover and rain cooled
air, only reaching the mid 60s.

Guidance gets a bit more muddled as we head into mid-week and
beyond. The upper level closed low will remain over the Great Lakes/
Mid Atlantic region, slowly progressing east toward Quebec through
the end of the working week. Closer to the surface, however, there
are weak/ loosely forced signals for on and off rain as impulses
travel through the southwesterly flow. Have kept episodic chances
for rain showers in the forecast heading into the weekend. Right
now, ensemble guidance suggests that temperatures rise back to near
normals (perhaps a tad below) from mid-week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will continue. Remaining cumulus will dissipate early in the
period. Beyond that there will be a mix of mid and high clouds which
will evolve into a fairly solid mid deck on Sunday. Winds will become
light and then increase to 7 to 10 kt out of the northeast on Sunday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely Tuesday
into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...