876
FXUS61 KILN 070658
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
258 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer conditions will arrive today as a closed low departs to the
northeast. A cold front sliding south through the Great Lakes could
bring scattered showers and storms on Thursday, then a brief cool
down late in the week. High pressure will provide warm and dry
conditions this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
After the rainy and cool weather yesterday across central Ohio,
clearing skies may tend to provide impetus for fog development to
start the near term period this morning. However, once the fog burns
off, most in the middle Ohio Valley can expect warmer temperatures
and filtered sunshine. Highs will reach into the 70s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A few CAMs are hinting at the chance of a very isolated showers this
evening along a weak convergent boundary spread west to east between
Dayton and Cincinnati. With weak flow, was reluctant to add more than
a slight chance for a few hours before midnight.

Outside of this low-confidence exception, most of our area will be
in a COL tonight with low pressure to the northeast and southwest
with highs to the northwest and southeast. This will result in light
winds and little large-scale advection. However, a sharp trough will
begin to approach from the north by early Thursday morning. A cold
front, with much lower dewpoints behind it, may make some progress
into our northern counties before noon on Thursday. At the same time,
a weak shortwave will be lifting north associated with an upper-
level closed low over southern Missouri. Latest CAMs suggest the cold
front may dawdle a bit from midday into the afternoon before surging
south Thursday evening. The end result is a period of mid to upper 50s
dewpoints across southern Ohio and northern Kentucky with a source
of convergence. Therefore, have added a chance of afternoon showers
and storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Conditions will trend dry area-wide from N to S by Thursday
evening/night. Skies should trend mostly clear/clear and with very
dry air settling into the region, temps will get fairly chilly by
seasonal standards, generally in the upper 30s (near/N of I-70) to
lower 40s (near/S of the OH Rvr). The good news in this regard is
that the sfc wind should stay up (out of the NNE) at around 5-10kts
through the night, so frost is not a big concern at this time even
in the cooler spots.

Ensemble guidance seems to be in fairly good agreement showing a
continued influx of very dry air from the N into the daytime Friday
on the backside of the deepening system to the E. By Friday into
Saturday, the digging S/W should evolve into a closed low to the E
of the OH Vly, but dry conditions are favored locally through this
stretch. After a cool start Saturday in the low to mid 40s, temps
will rebound into the lower to mid 70s by Saturday afternoon.

A slow warming trend should evolve this weekend as a narrow axis of
better moisture briefly tries to move into the ILN FA Saturday
before another brief reinforcing shot of dry air arrives Saturday
night into Sunday. Temps will trend above normal by Sunday through
next week.

While the exact evolution of the pattern into early next week still
has some uncertainties at these time ranges given the weak flow
entrenched across the ern CONUS, the latest ensemble guidance
suggests that a separate cutoff low initially across the SE CONUS
this weekend is going to meander N into the TN/OH Vlys by Monday
into Tuesday as the blocky pattern continues. This will likely occur
amidst a seasonably warm (and moist) airmass, which will likely
bring increased/widespread pcpn chances back into the area through
at least the first half of next week.

These SHRA/TSRA chances both Monday and Tuesday will likely be
maximized during the daytime amidst some diurnally-enhanced instby,
but given the above-normal PWATs that will again settle across the
region, on-and-off pcpn chances are likely to persist at times
Monday through Wednesday. The coverage of activity for early next
week is likely not been captured completely by a blended dataset at
this time, so PoPs for each day Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday may
need to be upped in subsequent fcst cycles if current signals
continue. The /very/ moist environment combined with weak steering-
layer flow will lend itself to episodic locally-heavy rain potential
during this stretch, although the specifics of this are too far down
the line to include a mention in the HWO at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Conditions will generally be VFR for this TAF period. Only exception
to this is the potential for fog and stratus early this morning at
the Columbus terminals. Rain today has left behind a cool, damp near-
surface environment. Low clouds and fog are developing across
northern and central Ohio, leaving a chance for these to expand into
CMH/LCK through 12Z.

Otherwise, a few models (see 3km NAM) suggest isolated showers could
develop after 00Z this evening along a weakly convergent boundary in
the ILN/CVG area. Since confidence is low, have opted to exclude
showers in these respective TAFs.


OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Thursday. Thunderstorms are
possible Thursday afternoon.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...