Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
501
FNUS72 KILM 271238
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Shaken Rx 6/27...TNC
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
838 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
Bermuda High Pressure will provide hot and humid summer weather today.
Heat index values should peak near 101 degrees. There is only a slight
chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and most areas
should remain dry. The seabreeze front should push across the Shaken
Creek site shortly after 3 PM and will be accompanied by a shift to
south winds with a modest increase in wind speeds.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is None.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph becoming southwest
this afternoon, then becoming south 5 to 10 mph
after 3 PM.
Max mixing hgt......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 15 mph shifting to the south 12 to 15
mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Fair (51662 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............64.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........11 9 7 16 26 35 31 27 23
Weather cov..... SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20 10
Temp............82 85 89 91 92 93 91 91 90
RH..............77 69 62 56 53 50 53 55 57
20 FT wind dir..W W W W SW SW SW S S
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 3 6 8 8
20 FT wind gust.7 8 8 8 8 8 9 12 12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.1 2.9 3.8 5.0 4.9 3.7 2.9 2.7
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W S S S
Transp wind spd.15 14 12 9 10 9 12 13 15
Stability.......A A A A A A B B B
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............31 38 44 45 64 56 52 45 51
Vrate mph-ft/1K.24 29 34 35 52 45 43 36 40
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR FR PR FR
Sfc pres (in)...003 003 005 005 005 003 003 003 998
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
becoming light.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (5133 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........7.
Min ADI.............5.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........17 11 5 5 4 4 5 7 10 10 10 10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............88 86 83 80 79 78 77 76 75 75 75 74
RH..............61 66 71 82 86 88 90 92 94 94 95 96
20 FT wind dir..S SW SW SW SW S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..7 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT wind gust.12 10 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.15 14 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 12
Stability.......F F F F F F F F F F F F
LVORI...........3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7
ADI.............7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.23 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...998 998 000 000 000 005 005 005 004 004 004 002
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Max vent rate.......Fair (47442 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........6.
Max ADI.............58.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........11 11 10 10 10 10 17 25 32 26 20 18
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20
Temp............74 75 79 82 86 89 91 92 92 91 91 90
RH..............97 97 87 78 69 62 59 57 57 58 60 63
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 3 3 3 5 5 6 6 7 7
20 FT wind gust.4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.1 4.0 4.5 4.8 5.0 4.4 3.8 3.2
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
Transp wind spd.13 12 13 10 8 7 8 9 9 10 13 14
Stability.......A A A A A A A A A B B B
LVORI...........5 6 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............12 11 20 28 32 35 46 52 58 56 56 55
Vrate mph-ft/1K.6 6 16 21 25 27 36 41 46 47 47 45
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR
Sfc pres (in)...002 002 005 005 005 004 004 004 999 999 999 996
$$
Forecaster...Armstrong
Requested by...Zach West
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516784.0/ILM
.DELDT 06/27/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL zwest@tnc.org