232
FNUS72 KILM 041324
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for WB Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
824 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Warm today with winds out of the west this morning. A dry cold
front will move through the area this afternoon with winds
becoming NW following its passage. Gusts will be limited this
morning, but increase this afternoon behind the front; max gusts
to around 20 mph after 1 PM. Wind shift likely to occur between 1
PM and 3 PM.

The front will linger in the region Wednesday into Thursday,
leading to increased rain chances. Temperatures above to well
above normal for the end of the week despite another front
bringing showers to the region Friday. More seasonable conditions
return Monday along with another chance for rain.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is Low.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 7 mph decreasing to around
                    5 mph late in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest 12
                    to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Good (76513 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............92.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2   2   1   0   0   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............57  63  68  72  75  76  76  76  73
RH..............77  67  55  48  43  41  39  39  44
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   5
20 FT wind gust.10  11  12  13  13  13  13  12  7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.2 1.4 2.4 3.4 3.9 4.0 3.9 0.6
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N
Transp wind spd.17  17  16  18  20  20  18  18  12
Stability.......B   B   B   B   B   B   B   B   B
LVORI...........3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............22  27  30  57  80  92  88  86  12
Vrate mph-ft/1K.16  20  23  45  66  77  74  72  7
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  PR
Sfc pres (in)...000 002 002 002 000 000 000 001 001

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 6 mph
                    overnight.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 13 mph shifting to the east 14 to
                    17 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Min vent rate.......Poor (4619 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Min ADI.............5.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........0   1   2   3   4   8   12  16  21  25  29  34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............67  63  60  57  55  53  51  48  47  45  44  43
RH..............56  66  71  75  78  80  80  82  79  77  73  74
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..3   1   1   2   2   2   3   5   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.4   2   3   3   4   3   5   6   7   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  E
Transp wind spd.10  10  13  13  14  15  17  16  15  16  15  16
Stability.......F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
ADI.............5   5   6   6   6   7   8   7   7   7   7   7
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5   5   6   6   7   11  20  14  14  13  12  14
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...001 011 011 011 019 019 019 025 025 025 025 025

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 6 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming east 5 to
                    6 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 14 to 17 mph.
Max vent rate.......Poor (25375 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............31.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........38  42  45  48  51  53  54  56  57  58  59  60
Weather cov.....                            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............43  42  43  46  49  51  54  56  56  56  55  54
RH..............74  79  80  75  70  67  65  64  65  68  72  77
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   3   3   5   5   5   5   6   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.9   8   8   8   9   9   10  10  10  10  9   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.15  15  16  17  17  16  16  15  15  14  14  14
Stability.......B   B   B   B   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D
LVORI...........3   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   3   3   3   3
ADI.............16  16  29  31  28  26  26  25  24  22  20  21
Vrate mph-ft/1K.12  12  22  24  25  24  24  24  21  19  17  18
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...025 029 029 029 031 031 031 026 026 026 022 022

$$

Forecaster...Baker
Requested by...Zach West
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2502214.0/ILM
.DELDT 02/04/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL zwest@tnc.org