096
FNUS72 KILM 031052
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Black River Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
652 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Warm and humid today with southerly winds around 10 mph
throughout the day. Periodic gusts this morning to around 15 mph
will increase after around 1-2 PM with a sea breeze. While no wind
shift is expected with the sea breeze, gusts will become more
pronounced, peaking at around 20 mph this afternoon.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is Low.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 13 mph, gusts up to 25 mph.
Max mixing hgt......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 23 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (103572 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............91.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........81  77  73  69  65  62  58  50  42  34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............70  72  74  77  78  80  82  82  82  82
RH..............97  84  73  63  59  54  51  56  57  58
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   9   10  10  11  11  11   9
20 FT wind gust.10  12  16  17  19  20  21  21  19  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.1 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  23  23  23  23  23  22  23  22  22
Stability.......D   D   D   D   D   D   D   C   C   C
LVORI...........5   4   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............21  31  35  46  54  61  64  91  86  86
Vrate mph-ft/1K.14  24  30  49  67  85  98  104 98  98
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  VGD GD  GD
Sfc pres (in)...022 022 022 025 025 025 022 022 022 019

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light, then becoming
                    southwest around 5 mph after 3 am.
Min mixing hgt......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 23 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (9694 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........7.
Min ADI.............8.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........32  30  29  33  37  41  45  49  53  57  61  65
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............79  76  73  71  70  69  68  68  67  67  67  67
RH..............67  74  82  87  91  93  94  95  98  98  98  96
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   6   5   5   5   5   3   3   5   5
20 FT wind gust.14  13  12  10  9   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.23  22  17  17  17  16  16  17  16  17  15  15
Stability.......E   E   F   F   F   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
LVORI...........3   3   4   5   5   5   5   6   7   7   7   6
ADI.............15  15  8   8   8   11  11  12  11  12  10  10
Vrate mph-ft/1K.76  47  17  16  15  14  13  14  12  12  10  10
Ventrate Cat....GD  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...019 019 021 021 021 023 023 023 019 019 019 021

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
Max vent rate.......Fair (57104 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............69.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69  73  77  69  62  54  45  36  27  27  27  26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............67  67  67  70  74  77  80  82  83  85  85  84
RH..............97  99  99  92  83  79  70  65  61  58  57  58
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   5   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.8   7   7   9   10  11  12  12  12  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd.15  15  15  17  20  20  17  16  15  15  15  15
Stability.......B   B   D   D   D   D   B   B   B   B   B   B
LVORI...........5   5   5   4   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............16  16  20  28  37  42  62  66  69  69  69  69
Vrate mph-ft/1K.9   9   16  26  38  48  50  54  57  57  57  57
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR
Sfc pres (in)...021 021 025 025 025 028 028 028 025 025 025 021

$$
Forecaster...Baker
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2508749.0/ILM
.DELDT 04/03/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org