614
FNUS72 KILM 181058
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Black River Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
558 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on February 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will provide mainly sunny skies, dry weather, and
light northeast winds today. Clouds and a cold rain are expected
Wednesday followed by dry and cold weather Thursday and Friday.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is None.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Max mixing hgt......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 14 mph.
Max vent rate.......Poor (32778 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............39.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........17  14  10  22  34  46  49  52  54  60
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............31  37  42  46  49  51  53  53  53  51
RH..............69  52  41  36  34  32  31  32  32  37
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..2   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.5   8   7   6   5   5   5   5   4   3
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.1 4.1 2.7
Transp wind dir.N   NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   NE  E
Transp wind spd.14  12  10  9   8   6   7   8   7   7
Stability.......B   B   B   B   B   B   B   B   B   B
LVORI...........3   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   2
ADI.............14  20  22  26  28  23  32  39  34  23
Vrate mph-ft/1K.9   15  17  21  23  19  26  33  28  18
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...021 021 026 026 026 022 022 022 019 019

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 34.
Max humidity........91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph
                    after 3 am.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 15 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (3266 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Min ADI.............3.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........66  72  62  51  41  42  42  43  49  54  60  70
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  43  41  39  38  37  36  36  35  35  35  36
RH..............45  53  59  63  67  69  70  71  73  75  75  75
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   1   1   2   2   2   3   3   5   5
20 FT wind gust.3   4   5   5   5   6   7   7   8   9   10  11
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   NE  NE  E   NE
Transp wind spd.7   9   9   9   9   10  10  12  13  13  14  15
Stability.......F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   E   E   E
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
ADI.............3   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   6   8   9   10
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   7   7
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...019 022 022 022 024 024 024 021 021 021 016 016

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain likely in the
                    morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 41.
Min humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around
                    17 mph.
Max mixing hgt......1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 15 to 24 mph.
Max vent rate.......Marginal (36849 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............39.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........79  88  91  93  95  97  98  100 100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....        SCH CHC CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....        RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............35  36  34  39  40  41  41  39  38  38  38  37
RH..............78  78  91  79  79  76  79  84  86  85  85  87
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.14  15  17  17  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.15  16  20  21  22  23  22  21  24  23  22  21
Stability.......D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D
LVORI...........3   3   4   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
ADI.............16  18  27  31  35  39  37  35  39  36  33  30
Vrate mph-ft/1K.7   9   22  26  32  37  34  32  36  32  29  26
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...016 014 014 014 015 015 015 009 009 009 000 000

$$
Forecaster...Armstrong
Requested by...Nathan Burmester
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2503133.0/ILM
.DELDT 02/18/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nathan.burmester@tnc.org