142
FNUS72 KILM 181650
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Supply HQ RX Burn...NCFS
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1250 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on August 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will build behind a back door cold front early this
week. Hurricane Erin will remain offshore between Bermuda and the
US East Coast during the middle of this week. A cold front will
approach the area later this week bringing cooler temperatures.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is Moderate.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 7 mph shifting to the north
                    around 6 mph early in the afternoon, then
                    shifting to the south 7 to 10 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Poor (29909 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........2.
Max ADI.............37.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   6   9   22  33  38
Weather cov.....                SCH SCH
Weather type....                RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH SCH
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   10  20  20
Temp............89  91  93  91  90  88
RH..............53  50  47  50  52  55
20 FT wind dir..NW  SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   6   7   7   8
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 4.3 5.2 4.3 3.1 2.4
Transp wind dir.NW  N   N   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   6   6   7   8   10
Stability.......A   A   A   A   A   A
LVORI...........2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............30  31  37  37  32  32
Vrate mph-ft/1K.23  25  30  30  25  25
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...991 991 990 990 990 987

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
                    Slight chance of showers early in the evening.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 10 mph shifting to the northeast 5
                    to 8 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Min vent rate.......Poor (2053 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........8.
Min ADI.............2.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........35  39  47  43  39  35  42  28  16  31  24  21
Weather cov.....SCH     SCH SCH
Weather type....RW      RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH
Chc of thdr (%).20  10  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0
Temp............86  83  81  80  79  78  77  77  76  75  76  75
RH..............61  67  74  77  81  84  91  90  94  93  92  93
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SE  E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N
20 FT wind spd..3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3
20 FT wind gust.7   6   4   5   4   4   4   4   4   5   6   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.10  8   7   6   6   5   6   7   7   7   8   8
Stability.......F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........3   3   3   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   8   8
ADI.............5   4   3   3   3   2   3   3   3   3   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.17  8   4   3   3   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...987 987 991 991 991 995 995 995 994 994 994 993

$$
Forecaster...Scalora
Requested by...Alan Matthews
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2520141.0/ILM
.DELDT 08/18/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL alan.matthews@ncagr.gov