Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
725
FNUS72 KILM 221011
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Covington Drive Fire...SC Forestry Commission
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
611 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EDT on April 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
A weak front will move into the area later today and tonight, then
stall. The front will bring some much needed rainfall to the area.
Another cold front could bring additional rainfall later in the
week.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Low.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph early in
the morning.
Max mixing hgt......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph shifting to the south
around 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Fair (46455 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............50.
Chance of lightning.10 percent.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51 55 43 37 40 44 47 51 55 59 63
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
Chc of ltng (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
Temp............66 68 71 75 78 79 80 80 79 78 77
RH..............96 90 81 72 62 59 56 58 58 61 66
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..3 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.7 7 8 8 9 11 13 14 14 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.7 3.6 2.6 2.4 2.5 1.5
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S
Transp wind spd.12 12 13 13 10 10 12 15 16 18 20
Stability.......A A A B B B B C D D D
LVORI...........5 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 3
ADI.............11 11 16 25 30 46 50 44 35 40 32
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5 5 13 20 23 38 41 38 39 46 29
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR PR PR FR PR
Sfc pres (in)...007 010 010 010 012 012 012 007 007 007 004
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........98 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph in the evening becoming
light.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph decreasing to around 10
mph early in the morning.
Min vent rate.......Poor (4350 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........7.
Min ADI.............5.
Chance of lightning.10 percent.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........65 67 69 67 66 64 67 69 72 72 71 71
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Chc of ltng (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............75 74 72 71 70 70 69 68 68 67 66 66
RH..............70 73 78 80 84 88 90 92 93 94 96 96
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..10 9 8 7 6 3 3 2 2 1 1 1
20 FT wind gust.14 14 13 11 9 7 6 5 5 4 4 3
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.21 20 17 17 15 15 13 12 12 12 12 10
Stability.......D D D E E E F F F F F F
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7
ADI.............19 18 15 12 10 10 6 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.20 11 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...004 004 006 006 006 008 008 008 007 007 007 008
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms through
the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
late in the morning.
Max mixing hgt......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast
around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Poor (25391 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........8.
Max ADI.............33.
Chance of lightning.30 percent.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69 67 73 66 54 47 49 59 70 71 71 72
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of thdr (%).20 20 10 10 10 30 30 30 30 30 30 20
Chc of ltng (%).20 20 10 10 10 30 30 30 30 30 30 20
Temp............66 67 68 72 74 77 78 78 78 77 76 75
RH..............98 98 96 89 79 73 72 71 70 72 74 77
20 FT wind dir..S SW SW SW S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..1 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 6 6 6 5
20 FT wind gust.3 3 4 5 5 6 7 9 10 10 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.3
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW W W W W SW S S S SE
Transp wind spd.9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9
Stability.......B B B B B A A B C C C B
LVORI...........8 8 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
ADI.............10 10 10 12 19 30 33 30 27 24 20 16
Vrate mph-ft/1K.4 4 5 10 14 23 25 24 23 20 16 12
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...008 008 013 013 013 015 015 015 014 014 014 013
$$
Forecaster...Baker
Requested by...Drake Carroll
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2511186.1/ILM
.DELDT 04/22/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dcarroll@scfc.gov,mney@scfc.gov,rholt@scfc.gov