703
FNUS72 KILM 122105
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for R1 Support...North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
505 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 EDT on July 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect the
area through this evening with sudden shifting winds possible
both ahead of and within any storm. Another round of showers
and storms is expected from Monday afternoon into the night
and again on Tuesday before conditions dry out thereafter.

Fog potential for tonight is Low.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of thunder...50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Max mixing hgt......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 7 mph.
Max vent rate.......Poor (26611 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........1.
Max ADI.............32.
Chance of lightning.50 percent.

TIME (EDT)      5PM
Sky (%).........78
Weather cov.....CHC
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........CHC
Chc of thdr (%).50
Chc of ltng (%).50
Temp............90
RH..............60
20 FT wind dir..N
20 FT wind spd..2
20 FT wind gust.5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9
Transp wind dir.NE
Transp wind spd.7
Stability.......B
LVORI...........1
ADI.............32
Vrate mph-ft/1K.27
Ventrate Cat....PR
Sfc pres (in)...988

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers with
                    thunderstorms likely in the evening, then
                    showers likely and chance of thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Chance of thunder...60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Min mixing hgt......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 8 mph shifting to the east 6
                    to 12 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (3142 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Min ADI.............3.
Chance of lightning.60 percent.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........80  80  90  88  86  84  87  84  78  84  79  82
Weather cov.....CHC LKY DEF LKY LKY DEF LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of thdr (%).50  60  50  50  50  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
Chc of ltng (%).50  60  50  50  50  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
Temp............87  84  80  78  77  75  75  74  73  73  72  72
RH..............68  77  90  92  94  96  98  99  98  99  100 100
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   E   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1
20 FT wind gust.5   4   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   2   2
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  E   E   SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE
Transp wind spd.8   10  12  10  8   8   8   7   8   7   6   6
Stability.......F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........3   4   6   6   6   8   9   9   9   9   9   9
ADI.............4   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   4   3   3   3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.23  20  11  9   7   6   6   5   5   4   3   3
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...988 988 992 992 992 001 001 001 996 996 996 996

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
                    through the day. Showers likely in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Max mixing hgt......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 9 mph.
Max vent rate.......Poor (32287 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........8.
Max ADI.............39.
Chance of lightning.50 percent.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........80  73  75  72  78  73  63  68  74  78  79  80
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of thdr (%).30  30  20  20  20  30  30  30  50  50  50  50
Chc of ltng (%).30  30  20  20  20  30  30  30  50  50  50  50
Temp............71  70  73  74  77  79  80  81  82  82  84  81
RH..............100 100 100 100 95  93  92  88  86  83  79  84
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   NE
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   1   2   3   2   3   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.2   3   4   4   5   7   7   8   7   8   7   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   NE  NE  E   E
Transp wind spd.7   7   8   8   8   8   8   9   8   8   9   9
Stability.......B   B   A   B   B   B   B   B   B   B   B   B
LVORI...........8   8   8   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   3   4
ADI.............7   7   9   14  18  23  27  35  34  34  39  39
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3   3   7   11  14  18  21  28  28  28  32  32
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...996 996 000 000 000 003 003 003 002 002 002 000

$$
Forecaster...Weiner
Requested by...Thomas Crate
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617266.0/ILM
.DELDT 07/12/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL thomas.crate@ncparks.gov