430
FNUS72 KILM 051304
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for MOTSU B21/25...DoD Army
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
804 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0841 EST on February 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will stall to the south as high pressure to the
north brings much cooler weather today along with some rain
chances lasting into tonight. Warm and dry weather returns
Thursday into Friday though another front arrives later Friday.
The weekend will be rather mild as well but a stronger cold front
late Sunday will bring back February temperatures and cloudy,
unsettled conditions early next week.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is Moderate.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain early in the afternoon. Chance of rain
                    late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 7 to 10 mph.
Max mixing hgt......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 14 to 21 mph.
Max vent rate.......Poor (15784 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............18.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........70  69  68  77  86  95  96  98  100 100
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                    RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............52  54  56  57  59  58  58  57  56  54
RH..............79  83  80  78  77  81  83  87  90  96
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..10  9   9   9   8   8   8   8   7   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  14  14  14  14  14  13  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.21  21  18  18  16  15  14  14  14  14
Stability.......C   C   C   C   C   D   D   D   D   D
LVORI...........4   4   4   3   3   3   4   4   5   5
ADI.............16  16  14  16  18  16  15  15  15  15
Vrate mph-ft/1K.12  16  13  16  16  12  9   9   8   8
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...019 019 021 021 021 017 017 017 015 015

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Chance of rain through
                    the night. Patchy fog in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 16 mph shifting to the northwest 7
                    to 9 mph after 3 am.
Min vent rate.......Poor (3445 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Min ADI.............3.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........100 100 98  96  94  92  94  95  94  93  92  92
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  51  51  50  49  48  48  48  47  47  47  47
RH..............100 100 96  95  96  97  97  96  96  97  97  97
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   5   5   3   3   2   2   2   1   1
20 FT wind gust.11  10  10  9   8   7   6   5   5   4   4   4
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.15  16  16  15  14  12  10  10  10  9   8   7
Stability.......D   D   E   E   E   E   F   F   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........5   5   6   5   6   6   7   7   7   7   8   9
ADI.............13  14  11  10  9   8   5   5   5   4   4   3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.7   8   7   7   8   7   7   7   7   5   4   3
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...015 017 017 017 017 017 017 015 015 015 014 014

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning. Chance of rain early in the
                    morning. Slight chance of rain showers in the
                    morning.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 6 to 9 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 8 mph increasing to southwest 17 to
                    20 mph.
Max vent rate.......Poor (20600 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Max ADI.............25.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........91     72     56     42     32     26
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RAIN   RN/FG  RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............47     49     58     64     66     64
RH..............99     100    84     74     72     76
20 ft wind......NW 1   W 3    SW 6   SW 8   SW 9   SW 9
20 ft wind gust.4      8      11     14     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    800    1000   1100   900
Transport wind..NW 8   SW 7   SW 13  SW 16  W 20   SW 17
Stability.......B      C      D      C      C      C
LVORI...........8      9      4      3      3      3
ADI.............8      5      15     20     25     16
Vrate mph-ft/1K.4      3      11     17     21     15
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Sfc pres (in)...30.14  30.14  30.15  30.15  30.10  30.03

$$
Forecaster...Baker
Requested by...Crawford
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2502085.2/ILM
.DELDT 02/05/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL trent.k.crawford.civ@army.mil