Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
533
FNUS72 KILM 261036
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Covington Drive Fire...SC Forestry Commission
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
636 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
An approaching cold front will bring gusty southwest winds today
with a wave or two of showers and thunderstorms passing through
from the west this afternoon and from the north during the
early overnight hours. Breezy north winds follow behind the cold
front late tonight as cooler and drier air filter in for the rest of
the weekend.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is None.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the
afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in
the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 17 mph.
Max vent rate.......Fair (54807 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............57.
Chance of lightning.50 percent.
TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........49 47 45 47 58 65 73 80 77 73 69
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 10 20 20 40 50 40 50
Chc of ltng (%).0 0 0 0 10 20 20 40 50 40 50
Temp............67 68 72 75 78 79 80 79 77 77 76
RH..............93 92 80 69 63 62 62 65 69 70 71
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S
20 FT wind spd..2 3 5 7 7 9 9 10 9 10 9
20 FT wind gust.6 7 8 11 14 14 15 15 17 15 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.6 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 1.9 1.6 1.1
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
Transp wind spd.12 14 16 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 17
Stability.......B B B B C C C C C C D
LVORI...........5 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3
ADI.............12 14 33 52 57 57 53 53 38 34 24
Vrate mph-ft/1K.5 8 25 41 54 55 51 51 30 26 19
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...005 007 007 007 007 007 007 003 003 003 000
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
early in the evening.
Chance of thunder...40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph early in the evening
becoming light, then becoming north around 5
mph after 3 am. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms overnight.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 15 mph shifting to the west 12
to 13 mph overnight, then shifting to the north
13 to 17 mph after 3 am.
Min vent rate.......Poor (5133 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........7.
Min ADI.............5.
Chance of lightning.40 percent.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........57 45 33 29 26 22 23 23 23 35 24 25
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Chc of thdr (%).40 30 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 10 0
Chc of ltng (%).40 30 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 10 0
Temp............76 74 72 70 69 68 68 67 66 66 65 64
RH..............74 79 88 92 92 94 95 95 96 93 95 92
20 FT wind dir..S S S SW SW SW SW W W W N N
20 FT wind spd..8 5 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 5 5
20 FT wind gust.14 10 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Transp wind dir.S S SW SW SW SW SW W W N N N
Transp wind spd.15 14 15 15 13 14 14 13 12 13 14 17
Stability.......D E E F F F F F F F F F
LVORI...........3 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5
ADI.............13 9 10 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 8
Vrate mph-ft/1K.9 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 7 8 12
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...000 000 999 999 999 001 001 001 001 001 001 003
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the east
around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 22 mph decreasing to around 12 mph
late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Fair (54368 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............65.
Chance of lightning.0 percent.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........25 25 26 24 21 19 26 34 41 38 35 31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of ltng (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............63 61 62 65 67 70 72 74 75 76 76 75
RH..............88 84 79 70 63 55 51 47 44 43 43 44
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N N NE NE NE NE E
20 FT wind spd..6 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5
20 FT wind gust.11 12 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.9 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
Transp wind dir.N N NE N N N N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.18 20 22 20 17 16 15 15 14 13 13 12
Stability.......B B B B B B B B B A A A
LVORI...........4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............21 22 53 49 49 53 56 64 65 63 63 58
Vrate mph-ft/1K.16 17 41 39 39 43 46 52 54 50 50 45
Ventrate Cat....PR PR FR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR
Sfc pres (in)...003 003 013 013 013 017 017 017 016 016 016 013
$$
Forecaster...Weiner
Requested by...Drake Carroll
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2511186.5/ILM
.DELDT 04/26/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mney@scfc.gov,dcarroll@scfc.gov,rholt@scfc.gov