526
FNUS72 KILM 301605
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Shefield Tract...NC Forest Service
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1105 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on January 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Northerly flow will continue today. Cool and dry conditions remain
over the Carolinas through Saturday. A significant winter storm
is expected this weekend followed by cold and dry weather next
week.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight is None.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 45.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Max mixing hgt......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 13 mph.
Max vent rate.......Poor (31558 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........2.
Max ADI.............36.

TIME (EST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  42  64  71  68  60  56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............39  41  43  44  44  43  41
RH..............38  36  35  36  37  39  43
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   E   E   NE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   6   5
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   8   9   9   8
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.5
Transp wind dir.NE  E   E   E   NE  NE  E
Transp wind spd.8   8   9   9   9   10  13
Stability.......C   C   C   C   C   C   C
LVORI...........2   2   2   1   1   1   1
ADI.............21  24  29  31  30  33  36
Vrate mph-ft/1K.18  21  27  29  29  32  32
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Sfc pres (in)...023 023 014 014 014 009 009

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow overnight. Chance of snow overnight.
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 24.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 9 mph.
Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 13 to 22 mph increasing to 23 to 25
                    mph after 3 am.
Min vent rate.......Poor (6159 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........3.
Min ADI.............8.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........49  50  51  53  54  72  86  100 100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
Temp............38  36  34  33  32  31  30  29  28  27  27  26
RH..............49  55  59  62  66  68  72  77  77  79  80  82
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   7   7   7   7   8   8   9   9
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   9   11  11  12  12  13  13  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.7
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.13  14  16  16  18  20  21  21  22  23  24  25
Stability.......E   E   E   E   E   D   D   D   D   D   D   D
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............8   9   11  11  12  18  19  19  20  26  27  28
Vrate mph-ft/1K.11  6   8   9   15  18  26  22  18  32  43  43
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR
Sfc pres (in)...009 010 010 010 007 007 007 002 002 002 002 002

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Chance of snow in the
                    morning, then snow in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 31.
Min humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 9 to 13 mph with gusts to around 20
                    mph.
Max mixing hgt......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 25 to 29 mph.
Max vent rate.......Good (58718 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........4.
Max ADI.............55.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............25  25  25  27  30  31  31  30  30  29  28  26
RH..............83  86  87  83  77  75  75  78  79  80  81  84
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   10  10  10  10  12  12  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.14  14  15  17  18  18  19  19  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.9
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.25  25  25  26  25  25  26  26  26  28  28  29
Stability.......D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D
LVORI...........4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............45  45  45  48  48  49  52  51  52  53  55  54
Vrate mph-ft/1K.45  45  43  47  49  51  54  54  55  56  59  56
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR
Sfc pres (in)...002 998 998 998 998 998 998 988 988 988 986 986

$$
Forecaster...Boatman
Requested by...Hugh Frazer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2601396.0/ILM
.DELDT 01/30/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL hugh.frazer@ncagr.gov